I’m not convinced that Rentoul’s right when he says the polls could be overstating LAB and understating CON

I’m not convinced that Rentoul’s right when he says the polls could be overstating LAB and understating CON

Comments 0 Comment

You can’t draw those big conclusions from recent election polling In a recent post the Indy on Sunday’s John Rentoul had this to say about the EP14 and Newark polling and its implications for GE15. “…By-elections in which a seat fails to change hands may not seem the most exciting of events, but they are important because they allow us to assess the accuracy of opinion polls. Two were carried out in Newark in the final two weeks, one by…

Read More Read More

The big challenge now for UKIP: Securing enough votes in single seats well in excess of anything its achieved before

The big challenge now for UKIP: Securing enough votes in single seats well in excess of anything its achieved before

Comments 0 Comment

Getting even a single MP might be beyond the purples There’s been lots of betting interest since EP14 and Newark over what UKIP will do at GE15. Will this be the election when the party that won the Euros actually gets it first MP or MPs? We’ve been over this many times but it is hard ask for Farage’s team to get enough votes in at least one of the 650 seats that puts them over the line. As we…

Read More Read More

The coalition parties make progress in this week’s Ashcroft phone poll: LAB & UKIP down

The coalition parties make progress in this week’s Ashcroft phone poll: LAB & UKIP down

Comments 0 Comment

Things stabilising after EP14 & Newark The latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll has just been published and sees the two coalition partners gaining a bit while LAB/UKIP slip back. The effect is to reduce last week’s LAB 10% lead to 4%. Sounds dramatic but actually all changes are within the margin of error. For the LDs and Nick Clegg this poll will come as a huge relief. Last week’s 6% was the lowest for the yellows in a phone poll…

Read More Read More

After Newark CON must be pretty confident of holding Cambs South – the next by-election in the pipeline?

After Newark CON must be pretty confident of holding Cambs South – the next by-election in the pipeline?

Comments 0 Comment

The contest that could be coming up to fill Lansley’s seat? In February I was the first to tip the ex-health secretary and now leader of the House, Andrew Lansley, as the next UK commissioner in Brussels. I got on at 16/1 and since the price tightened to him being an odds-on favourite. Now the bookies are not taking bets for it’s been informally announced that Lansley’s the man and he has even spoken publicly about it. The winnings I…

Read More Read More

Polling on whom would make the best Tory leader after Dave

Polling on whom would make the best Tory leader after Dave

Comments 0 Comment

YouGov asked If David Cameron were to step down as leader of the Conservative Party, which of the following do you think would make the best leader? It doesn’t make for good reading for Michael Gove, not too bad Theresa May, and good for Boris. It is interesting, Boris leads Theresa May on every demographic in the graphic above and every age group except on the over 60s, and it’s a tie between Boris and May on females. A couple of caveats, there’s…

Read More Read More

Was Theresa May on manoeuvres and did it cost her SPAD her job?

Was Theresa May on manoeuvres and did it cost her SPAD her job?

Comments 0 Comment

Mail on Sunday front page – “Tory bloodbath over Muslim schools fiasco” #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/VrCxEe5xSK — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) June 7, 2014 Today’s front pages don’t make great reading for the Tories, and in particular Theresa May or Michael Gove. The Sunday Times reports (££) The row exposed deep rifts within the cabinet. Two cabinet ministers accused May of running a “tiresome” and “obvious” leadership campaign, picking a fight with Gove to boost her hopes of succeeding Cameron if he…

Read More Read More

Opinium poll

Opinium poll

Comments 0 Comment

As we can see with this poll, the trend we’ve seen with some other pollsters since the local and European elections, Labour’s lead appears to be widening, UKIP’s support appears to be solid, whilst for the Lib Dems they hit their lowest share with this pollster since July 2013. The fieldwork was before the Newark by-election. The following graph, shows the responses to the following question, Thinking about the current state of the UK economy, would you say it is. The…

Read More Read More

Should the Lib Dems treat the 2015 election as their Rorke’s Drift

Should the Lib Dems treat the 2015 election as their Rorke’s Drift

Comments 0 Comment

The video above is what it must feel like to be Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems and what awaits them in next year’s General Election. James Kirkup in the Telegraph writes about the Lib Dems in Newark If Labour was passive in Newark, the Lib Dems were non-existent. Not a single Lib Dem MP campaigned there, and only a single peer. (Lord Newby). The cash-strapped central party gave no support to the local candidate. Finishing sixth and losing the…

Read More Read More