politicalbetting.com – Page 1321 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Unique all female sample IndyRef poll finds 20% lead for NO

14/8/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

New Survation poll of Scotland's women finds big #IndyRef lead for NO pic.twitter.com/dzrn3NLw1s — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 The Survation/Daily Record Scottish women's poll was carried out from Fri – Tues & is first of its kind. After DKs excluded NO 20% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 The front page of Thursday’s Daily Record is dominated by a new Survation poll confined to Scottish women only. This is the first time such a survey has…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

13/8/2014 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Home of the webâ€™s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the dayâ€™s events in PB NightHawks. If youâ€™re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Second Scottish independence debate to be screened live across UK by BBC.Â Alistair Darling and Alex Salmond will go head to head on 25 August, as 700,000 postal votes are sent out…

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Ipsos-MORI finds CON and LAB level pegging – but with Boris as leader they’d be 5% ahead

13/8/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

LAB & CON level pegging amongst those certain to vote with @IpsosMORI . LAB 2% ahead with all expressing VI pic.twitter.com/Je4sGsBxGa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 Ipsos-MORI voting intentions if Boris/Osbo/Theresa were leaders. The inevitable Boris boost! pic.twitter.com/0WBx0vyavg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 All leaders up in the August @IpsosMORI leader satisfaction ratings. Maybe cos they're on holiday! pic.twitter.com/ZHjNm38WOt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014

Why LAB wins more seats with fewer votes : The way First Past the Post works in its favour

13/8/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

Understanding Labour’s “other crutch” We’ve talked a lot on PB about Labour’s “electoral crutch” – the big shift to it since 2010 of Lib Dem voters which has so far remained. Well Labour has another crutch – the electoral system which could be equally or even more important. UK general elections are not decided by aggregate national vote shares but by FPTP elections in 650 separate seats where voters choose which individuals they want as their MPs. Unlike the Euro…

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Nighthawks is now open

12/8/2014 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Home of the webâ€™s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the dayâ€™s events in PB NightHawks. If youâ€™re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Â Nicky Morganâ€™s challenge:Â stop Gove becoming a useful bogeyman Is the wizardry of Conservative strategistÂ Lynton Crosby a myth? Boris standing as an MP is the silliest story of the silly season.Â Although that’s…

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How whether Scotland remains part of the UK is totally dominating the political betting markets at the moment

12/8/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

What’s surprising is the lack of interest in the party leaders The chart is a snapshot, based on total amounts matched on the Betfair exchange, of what it happening on the political betting markets at the moment. Much of our talk might be of the general election and the future of the party leaders but that is not what is grabbing the attention of punters. Very few political markets ever top the Â£1m mark on Betfair and my guess, based…

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If the “ICM August polls before general elections” rule works again then Ed Miliband is home and dry

12/8/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

Look at the record for when LAB is in the lead Five years ago I made a comment on PB that August polls should not be trusted because of the holiday effect and got into an email exchange with Nick Sparrow – then head of polling for ICM. He pointed out the following from his firm’s record over several general elections which on the face of it looks convincing. August 1996 ICM poll had LAB ahead by 12%. The result…

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The August ICM poll sees reverse cross-over with LAB moving from a 1% deficit to a 7% lead

11/8/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

And the inevitable “what if Boris was CON leader” questions Tonight’s big polling news is that Labour has moved up sharply in the monthly ICM phone poll for the Guardian. In July EdM’s party was 1% behind. Now they are 7% ahead. I must admit that I’m rather surprised by these latest findings and was expecting both main parties to be just about level-pegging. We’ll have to wait till the full data is out before we can work out what’s…

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