The August ICM poll sees reverse cross-over with LAB moving from a 1% deficit to a 7% lead

The August ICM poll sees reverse cross-over with LAB moving from a 1% deficit to a 7% lead

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And the inevitable “what if Boris was CON leader” questions Tonight’s big polling news is that Labour has moved up sharply in the monthly ICM phone poll for the Guardian. In July EdM’s party was 1% behind. Now they are 7% ahead. I must admit that I’m rather surprised by these latest findings and was expecting both main parties to be just about level-pegging. We’ll have to wait till the full data is out before we can work out what’s…

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Another cross-over gets reversed – but could ICM, expected tonight, have a consecutive CON lead?

Another cross-over gets reversed – but could ICM, expected tonight, have a consecutive CON lead?

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This could be a highly unusual polling day for the two firms to be reporting both had the Tories in the lead last time out. A couple of hours ago Populus online moved from a 1% CON lead on Friday to a 4% LAB one now. Later in the day I’m hoping that we should see the ICM Guardian poll which in July had CON 34. LAB 33, LD 12, UKIP 9. I’ve not had confirmation yet that this will…

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YouGov’s IndyRef NO lead grows even though the firm’s tweaked its methodology to make it more favourable to YES

YouGov’s IndyRef NO lead grows even though the firm’s tweaked its methodology to make it more favourable to YES

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@MSmithsonPB still not helping 😉 pic.twitter.com/wI2FAzgrUz — Steve Sayers (@stevesayers1) August 11, 2014 New YouGov I#ndyRef poll for Sun has NO lead up 1 NO 55%+1 YES -35% DK 10%-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 Excluding don't knows tonight's Sun #IndyRef poll is 61% NO to 39% YES — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 Fieldwork straddled last Tuesday’s Darling-Salmond debate There’s a new IndyRef poll out from YouGov – the firm which has generally been showing bigger NO leads and…

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Lifting the Margin of Error Safety Blanket

Lifting the Margin of Error Safety Blanket

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The trend is still your friend > “All changes are within the margin of error”.  It’s a frequently heard line, usually trotted out by those sympathetic to a party whose share has just declined, or by those keen to fence-sit.  While it may be true (and it usually is: only six of the 600 or so poll-to-poll changes across the four parties in this year’s YouGov series have been more than 3%, for example, and then only by a single…

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Detailed data from the YouGov/ST polls finds that fewer current CON voters would back party if Boris was leader

Detailed data from the YouGov/ST polls finds that fewer current CON voters would back party if Boris was leader

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YouGov/ST Boris polling finds that FEWER current CON voters would back party with Boris as leader (HT @georgeeaton) pic.twitter.com/gIvB2FZDTb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 The mayor attracts votes as well as turning some off Thanks to George Eaton at the New Statesman for picking this up. A Boris-led Tory party could lead to fewer current CON voters backing the party. Looking at the detail in the table above we see that there’s a 5% drop amongst current CON…

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The polling that suggests that Boris could play a part in winning back CON voters from UKIP

The polling that suggests that Boris could play a part in winning back CON voters from UKIP

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Today 's YouGov S Times polling showing the appeal of Boris to UKIP voters pic.twitter.com/1TplGaV3lm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 But he’s not seen as being up to job of being PM 36% tell YouGov that Boris would be up to the job of PM, 43% say he would not. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2014 YouGov S Times poll with named leaders finds that CON would do 1% better with Boris rather than Dave. — Mike…

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Local By-Election Results: August 7th 2014

Local By-Election Results: August 7th 2014

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Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazing on Epping Forest (Con Defence) Result: Conservatives 155 (50% -34%), UKIP 122 (40%), Green 23 (7% -3%), Liberal Democrats 7 (2% -4%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 33 (10%) on a swing of 37% from Conservative to UKIP Warboys and Bury on Huntingdonshire (Con Defence) Result: Conservative 616 (47% +1%), UKIP 560 (42% +16%), Liberal Democrats 78 (6% -7%), Labour 72 (5% -10%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 56 (5%) on a…

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Huge blow for Salmond and the Scottish Independence campaign in first full post TV debate referendum poll

Huge blow for Salmond and the Scottish Independence campaign in first full post TV debate referendum poll

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How the Scottish Daily Mail is reporting its Survation #IndyRef poll showing big post-debate boost for NO pic.twitter.com/1oPFhHSidM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2014 NEW #indyref Survation/Scottish Daily Mail (chg since Aug 3rd) Yes 37% (-3) No 50% (+4) Undec 13% (-1) Ex Undec Yes 43% (-4) No 57% (+4) — Survation (@Survation) August 8, 2014 NO lead moves from 6% to 14% in less than a week A new poll by Survation for the Scottish Daily Mail has just been published and sees a…

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