Lord Ashcroft has polled the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, about Boris, and it generally makes for great reading for the Mayor of London. The phone poll was conducted this week. It should be noted, the standard VI poll not mentioning Boris, shows a Con to Lab swing of 5.5%, which would indicate an approximate 3% Labour lead nationwide, which is in line with the national polling. The one downside for Boris is 50% of the voters don’t want him…
Never mind the LD switchers, the biggest threat to Labour was already in the Red column One assertion that receives a regular hearing on politicalbetting is that Labour is in an extremely strong position to win the next election thanks to that group of voters who switched from Lib Dem to Labour in 2010. They’ve been consistent in their support ever since and remain favourably disposed towards Miliband and Labour. Add in that UKIP’s support has come disproportionately from Con,…
South Normanton East on Bolsover (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 293 (71%), Conservative 120 (29%) Labour HOLD Knight’s Hill on Lambeth (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 1,265 (65%), Conservative 248 (13%), Green 230 (12%), UKIP 99 (5%), Liberal Democrat 94 (5%), Non Party Independent 51 (3%) Labour HOLD Harry Hayfield
Are we getting too many polls? I know that might be a churlish thing for us polling addicts to say but the below graph shows the comparison of the number of Westminster VI polls conducted by BPC pollsters, in July 2009 and July 2014. We’ve gone from eight polls in July 2009, to forty-four in July 2014, even if we remove the YouGov daily tracker, the number of non You-Gov polls has increased from five to twenty in the same…
The FT's Janan Ganesh pic.twitter.com/lRZnizuSWE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 15, 2014 The Janan Ganesh comment that goes right to the heart of GE2015 In the run up to the May elections the George Osborne biographer and FT columnist wrote the following which goes right to the heart of the Tory challenge on economic policy. “…Anyone who thinks the effectiveness of Labour’s cost of living motif is somehow pegged to economic data does not understand why it worked in the…
South Normanton East on Bolsover (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Labour 32, Independents 4, Green 1 (Labour majority of 27) Result of last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 647, 597 Conservative 248, 228 British National Party 176 Candidates duly nominated: Tracey Cannon (Lab), Robert Sainsbury (Con) Bolsover is one of those places that if it wasn’t for characters like Dennis Skinner MP (the so called “Beast of Bolsover”) wouldn’t really generate any interest…
Looking at the mathematics of a Scottish 2016 exit This post has been prompted by comments on previous threads about the impact on LAB chances should Scotland vote five weeks today for independence. The plan is that the actual separation should take place in March 2016 which could have an impact on what happens in the aftermath of next May’s UK general election. For clearly on separation Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats will cease to exist and the commons will be…
New Survation poll of Scotland's women finds big #IndyRef lead for NO pic.twitter.com/dzrn3NLw1s — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 The Survation/Daily Record Scottish women's poll was carried out from Fri – Tues & is first of its kind. After DKs excluded NO 20% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 The front page of Thursday’s Daily Record is dominated by a new Survation poll confined to Scottish women only. This is the first time such a survey has…