Constituency polling from these key LAB-CON marginals could give us the best indicators so far

Constituency polling from these key LAB-CON marginals could give us the best indicators so far

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What’s happening the 2-4% range of marginals? Thanks to Lord Ashcroft and to a lesser extent Survation we are now seeing more full constituency polling in key marginals than has ever been available before. This is not the old-style marginals polling where maybe 100-200 are sampled in each seat and an overall swing figure is produced. What’s being made available are full single seat polls with proper sample sizes Lord Ashcroft has announced that a new round will be published…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Does Cameron have an Iraq policy? Or is he just making it up? Iraq crisis: You can’t win military campaigns without boots on the ground  The problem with Harriet Harman’s proposed gambling tax…

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George needs to find a way of making UKIP voters less economically pessimistic

George needs to find a way of making UKIP voters less economically pessimistic

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An opportunity for the Tories in the 2015 budget? One of the great things about taking part in Edinburgh Festival of Politics was being able to meet up again with Professor John Curtice, who must be the county’s leading political scientist. Talking about UKIP voters he made a point that I’ve not really looked at before – their economic pessimism particularly when related to their own situations. Look at the chart above based on data from yesterday’s YouGov/ST poll. The…

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“An independence referendum is like a normal election on steroids”

“An independence referendum is like a normal election on steroids”

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Window display from shop in Edinburgh's Royal Mile pic.twitter.com/tq1c1MeNKw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 18, 2014 YouGov/Times poll: After excluding DKs it’s YES 43%+3: NO 57%(-3) I’ve just got back from three days in Edinburgh where I was totally immersed in the momentous decision that the Scottish people are due to make in the referendum on September 18th. I was a panellist at the Festival of Politics which was held in the superb Scottish Parliament Building just across the road…

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Yes hits an all time high with YouGov

Yes hits an all time high with YouGov

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The third poll this weekend shows the momentum is with Yes. With a little over four weeks to go it would appear the momentum is with Yes, as one of the pollsters that has had traditionally had the largest leads for No, shows significant movement towards Yes. CORRECTION New @YouGov /Times #indyref poll changes since Aug 4 Yes 38 % (+3) No 51% (-4) DK 11% (+1) Exc DK's Yes 43% (+3) No 57% (-3) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August 17,…

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Will the polling on air strikes against ISIS persuade Dave to intervene?

Will the polling on air strikes against ISIS persuade Dave to intervene?

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August is supposed to be the silly season,  but for the second consecutive August, it appears Britain may intervene militarily in the Middle East. Last year, parliament ended that expedition before it even began. But in today’s Telegraph, Cameron writes  Isil poses a direct and deadly threat to Britain. The poisonous extremism on the march in Iraq and Syria affects us all – and we have no choice but to rise to the challenge. YouGov over the last few days have…

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Indyref polling round up – Could the NHS be what wins it for Yes?

Indyref polling round up – Could the NHS be what wins it for Yes?

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Tonight sees two Indyref polls out. First up Panelbase for Yes Scotland, historically Panelbase have produced some of the smallest No leads. The fieldwork was this week, between the 12th and the 15th, The first question asked was the referendum question, in the past some Panelbase polls have not done this. Correction New Panelbase #indyref poll Changes since last month Yes 42 (+1) No 46 (-2) DK 12 (+1) Exc DK's Yes 48 (+2) No 52 (-2) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August…

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Opinium poll sees UKIP up six

Opinium poll sees UKIP up six

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UKIP sees a six point surge with Opinium   The usual caveats apply, this is but one poll, we need to see other polling to see if this UKIP surge is occurring or not. My own thought is that, this is more a return to the status quo for Opinium with regards to UKIP, their last poll, a fortnight ago, had UKIP down to their lowest point since February 2013, and that didn’t feel right. This UKIP’s highest score with…

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