Betfair sees £2m of matched IndyRef bets in just 36 hours as the polls continue to move up and down

Betfair sees £2m of matched IndyRef bets in just 36 hours as the polls continue to move up and down

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The IndyRef is proving to be one of the biggest UK political betting events of all time with a colossal £2m. being matched on Betfair alone since mid-afternoon on Wednesday. This, of course, is being driven by the polls with large amounts going on as different pictures emerge. The chart shows the current (0005 Friday) and the changes since 1545 on Wednesday. I’ve never known polling to have such an influence on the betting nor have we seen betting at…

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Survation Indyref poll gives Better Together some good news

Survation Indyref poll gives Better Together some good news

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New @Survation #indyref poll has Yes 47 (nc) No 53 (nc) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 10, 2014 47.6% plan to vote No a week tomorrow with 42.4% voting Yes. 10% of people remain undecided, 53% No to 47% Yes. http://t.co/z59C5GG4I3 — Survation (@Survation) September 10, 2014 A 10% gap with women voters helped Better Together to their latest poll lead http://t.co/NKBuEN1RvY — The Daily Record (@Daily_Record) September 10, 2014 The Survation poll for the Daily Record is out now….

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It looks as though we’ll get an IndyRef poll from the firm that got the AV referendum right to within a fraction of a percent

It looks as though we’ll get an IndyRef poll from the firm that got the AV referendum right to within a fraction of a percent

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Massive polling weekend to come from @ICMResearch in advance of defining week for British constitution. Maybe even something on #indyref — Martin Boon (@martinboon) September 10, 2014 Look at the record from 2011 This is how well ICM did at the 2011 AV referendum – accurate to a fraction of a decimal point pic.twitter.com/8HYgRIIDsB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 10, 2014 Members of YouGov’s panel believe its polls YouGov finds that members of its polling panel believe its polls. pic.twitter.com/2eLKSIZjz8 — Mike…

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Referendum Day Minus 8: Another tantalising wait for what looks set to be a sensational new poll

Referendum Day Minus 8: Another tantalising wait for what looks set to be a sensational new poll

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The Survation boss Tweets about his Daily Record IndyRef findings Well that was a long day..results of our new #indyref poll Sept 5-9 are just in and they are quite something! @davieclegg will tweet later. — Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) September 10, 2014 This’ll be the first full poll since YouGov had YES in the lead With the referendum now so close and the days running out the head of Survation, Damian Lyons Lowe, has added to the tension with…

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Spare a thought for the pollsters in the next few days

Spare a thought for the pollsters in the next few days

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The referendum could make or break reputations Just a week to go before the big day and there’s one group that’s getting very nervous – the pollsters. This is such a massive election that their final polls will be remembered for years just as now we point to surveys in Quebec in October 1995. The main challenge is that they’ve had no experience of surveying opinion for an election like this and there are so many uncertainties. Take turnout for…

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Why I’ve backed Philip Hammond as next Prime Minister at 33/1 (and Sajid Javid at 50/1)

Why I’ve backed Philip Hammond as next Prime Minister at 33/1 (and Sajid Javid at 50/1)

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What if the referendum outcome triggered Cameron’s departure? A few months ago, there was speculation that if Scotland votes Yes, then David Cameron would resign as Prime Minister, that speculation has amped up in recent days. The Sunday Times reported “several Conservative MPs are prepared to go public and demand David Cameron quit and two Tory ministers have warned colleagues that they would also feel compelled to resign if there was a “yes” vote.” Whilst I still have my doubts that David…

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Memo to Mr. Salmond: Don’t now throw it all away like Kinnock did in 1992

Memo to Mr. Salmond: Don’t now throw it all away like Kinnock did in 1992

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Galvanising the NO vote is the biggest danger for YES Suddenly a victory for YES looks possible. Two pollsters suggest that things have moved sharply in its direction and there are just 9 days left. Yesterday in one of a series of radio and TV interviews I was repeatedly asked whether the polls themselves could impact on the result and could I think of an example. The one I chose was Neil Kinnock in 1992. By election day the polls…

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It really is squeaky bum time: TNS has the gap down to just one percent

It really is squeaky bum time: TNS has the gap down to just one percent

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YouGov’s weekend figures echoed in new face to face poll The YES and NO campaigns in the Scottish IndyRef are running neck-and-neck after a dramatic swing over the past month, according to the much anticipated new poll from TNS which does its fieldwork face to face. This is the first Indyref poll for more than a month that is not online and gives us something solid in itself as well as a bench mark to assess other polling. The figures…

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