TNS-BMRB due to be published a day early One of the features of the referendum polling is that so much of it has been Online. Survation, Panelbase and, of course, YouGov poll in this way. In addition the ICM polls that we see are the same – unlike the firm’s long-standing phone poll series for the Guardian. The problem that online polling creates is that there is a level of self-selection in who takes part. The very fact that you…
Corporeal looks at the BBC’s Clacton decision One of the unresolved questions surrounding the next general election is how the media will treat UKIP, will they be pushed into the background as coverage hones in on the Lib Dems, (and especially) Labour, and the Conservatives or will they get brought into the mainstream debate and get a share of the precious oxygen of publicity. Most interesting, and probably most symbolic of all is whether they will get a look in…
YES needs more polls like YouGov As can be expected the weekend polls have triggered off a lot of betting activity. The market we can monitor best is the Betfair exchange where the price of the last trade is being constantly updated. The YES price on the Betfair exchange did touch 33%. It has now slipped aback a touch. Unlike many political markets there are a lot of punters on either side ready to risk their cash and the total…
Why I am waiting for TNS-BMRB The big problem we have with last night’s IndyRef polling sensation from YouGov is that so far it has not been supported by other firms. Panelbase, which traditionally has shown YES in its most favourable position came out with no change from from its mid-August IndyRef poll – a 4% lead. Given that most of the latest Panelbase fieldwork coincided with YouGov’s latest YES lead poll then it is indeed surprising that it has…
YouGov #indyref poll is out, YES IS AHEAD (changes since last poll) Exc DKs Yes 51% (+4) No 49% (-4) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 6, 2014 YouGov/ST poll Labour voters switching to Salmond in droves. 35% now back independence up from 18% a month ago — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) September 6, 2014 YouGov/ST poll: Every age group now backing independence except the over 60s. Women, the rich, the poor all switching to Salmond — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) September 6, 2014 As ever…
London Times will shock Britain and more with reliable new poll on Scottish independence. If right on 18 th vote everything up for grabs — Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) September 6, 2014 Scottish independence means huge black eye for whole political establishment, especially Cameron and Milliband. — Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) September 6, 2014 Scottish poll reflects world-wide disillusion with political leaders and old establishments leaving openings for libertarians and far left. — Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) September 6, 2014
Should we be looking at the best bets? The best odds on Yes winning the Scottish referendum a week on Thursday are 11/4 with bookies, or 3.3/1 on Betfair. Considering that not a single poll has shown Yes ahead and precious few have shown that side within touching distance, those offerings don’t look particularly attractive. A Yes, however, would be far from the end of the process: there would be consequences for all the parties, their leaders and the 2015…
Carfax on Oxford City (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 168 (44% +12%), Liberal Democrats 101 (27% +4%), Greens 63 (17% -9%), Conservatives 24 (6% -12%), United Kingdom Independence Party 24 (6%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 67 (17%) on a swing of 4% from Liberal Democrat to Labour Folkestone, Harvey Central on Shepway (Con Defence) Result: United Kingdom Independence Party 287 (28%), Conservative 224 (22%), Liberal Democrats 198 (19%), Labour 196 (19%) United Kingdom Independence Party GAIN from Conservative with…