Local By-Election Results : September 4th 2014

Local By-Election Results : September 4th 2014

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Carfax on Oxford City (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 168 (44% +12%), Liberal Democrats 101 (27% +4%), Greens 63 (17% -9%), Conservatives 24 (6% -12%), United Kingdom Independence Party 24 (6%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 67 (17%) on a swing of 4% from Liberal Democrat to Labour Folkestone, Harvey Central on Shepway (Con Defence) Result: United Kingdom Independence Party 287 (28%), Conservative 224 (22%), Liberal Democrats 198 (19%), Labour 196 (19%) United Kingdom Independence Party GAIN from Conservative with…

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As the big day gets closer Sporting Index returns to political spread betting

As the big day gets closer Sporting Index returns to political spread betting

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Not too long after the 2012 White House race Sporting Index disappeared from the political betting scene. This was to be much regretted. I’m a huge spread betting fan and just love the way that political futures can be traded like stocks and shares. Well SPIN has found the Scottish Referendum irresistible. It has become a massive, in political betting terms, market and across the board the bookies are reporting high levels of activity. There are two SPIN spread markets:-…

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Boris, the betting favourite for next CON leader and 2nd favourite for next PM is in danger of falling at the first fence

Boris, the betting favourite for next CON leader and 2nd favourite for next PM is in danger of falling at the first fence

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The Sun: Boris faces serious challenge in his effort to become GE2015 candidate in Uxbridge http://t.co/fvhdNsOts9 pic.twitter.com/vs1TzYauLw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 Boris’s selection for Uxbridge is not a foregone conclusion We all know that the main impediment to Boris being Cameron’s successor is that he’s not an MP. That appeared to have been resolved a few weeks ago when he made it clear that he would seek to return to the Commons at GE2015. Suddenly the London…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : September 4th 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : September 4th 2014

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Carfax on Oxford City (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 33, Liberal Democrats 8, Green 6, Independent 1 (Labour majority of 18) Result of last election in ward (2012): Labour 288 (32%), Green 235 (26%), Liberal Democrat 207 (23%), Conservative 159 (18%) Candidates duly nominated: Maryam Ahmed (Con), Kenrick Bird (UKIP), Tony Brett (Lib Dem), Alex Hollingsworth (Lab), Richard Scrase (Green) The gleaming spires of Oxford has hidden a battle between the Liberal Democrats and the…

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After the rumours that a YES lead poll is about to be published Ladbrokes open market on the next Panelbase findings

After the rumours that a YES lead poll is about to be published Ladbrokes open market on the next Panelbase findings

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CORRECTION Ladbrokes odds on next Panelbase IndyRef poll YES 3/1 NO 2/5 TIE 5/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 This might be a good way to flush out the data. If the odds change sharply or Ladbrokes suspend market then we’ll know something’s happening. Expecting the next "face-to-face" TNS-BMRB Indy Ref poll in the middle of next week. The firm has tended to have bigger NO figures. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 I’ve got a feeling that TNS might do…

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Two weeks to go in Scotland and NO edges up on the exchanges to a 77% chance

Two weeks to go in Scotland and NO edges up on the exchanges to a 77% chance

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Daily Record front page pic.twitter.com/BaRpvXdSRd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 3, 2014 The YES YouGov bounce starts to recede The widely reported news at the start of the week of the dramatic polling changes from YouGov in Scotland led inevitably to the money on the £3m Betfair markets to edge more towards YES. At one stage YES touched being a 26.5% chance but that has now started to recede with NO moving back upwards. The situation is nothing like as…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Election 2015 is a race neither Labour nor the Tories are fit to win For every Labour voter who shifts to UKIP, two or three Tories shift too Miliband’s message to…

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GE2015 polling should be put on one side so the focus for next next 2 weeks can be Scotland

GE2015 polling should be put on one side so the focus for next next 2 weeks can be Scotland

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In the last 18 days there've been just 2 IndyRef polls. Scotland decides 2 wks tomorrow. Extraordinary/annoying pic.twitter.com/z51NG5jnm2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 3, 2014 @MSmithsonPB As many polls of Clacton by-elec in last week as of indy ref in last 3 weeks. Priorities? — Rob Ford (England) (@robfordmancs) September 3, 2014 There’s no excuse for the lack of IndyRef polling A fortnight tomorrow a massive election is taking place north of the border. The turnout is expected to be…

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