YouGov’s weekend figures echoed in new face to face poll
The YES and NO campaigns in the Scottish IndyRef are running neck-and-neck after a dramatic swing over the past month, according to the much anticipated new poll from TNS which does its fieldwork face to face.
This is the first Indyref poll for more than a month that is not online and gives us something solid in itself as well as a bench mark to assess other polling.
The figures are sensational and add to the growing view that the outcome on September 18th is going to be touch and go.
What we need now are properly constructed telephone polls like the brilliant one that ICM did for the 2011 AV referendum that got the outcome absolutely bang on.
Details from the TNS poll.
A surge in the number of those who say they are certain to vote A strong move towards Yes among women An increased likelihood to vote Yes amongst those under 55
Among all adults aged 16+, 39% said they would vote No (down from 45% a month ago) and 38% backed a Yes vote (up from 32% a month ago). While there has been evidence to suggest that women were more reticent about voting Yes, this appears to be changing and the gender gap narrowing. 41% of women surveyed in this latest poll intend to vote No, but this figure was 49% a month ago, and the proportion of women who intend to vote Yes has increased from 27% to 35% (compared to the proportion of men who intend to vote Yes increasing from 38% to 41%).
Older people aged 55+ are now the only age group where No voters are in the majority â€“ 49% say they intend to vote No compared to 31% voting Yes.
Amongst those aged under 55 years, the Yes vote has achieved a significant upturn in the last month â€“ from being 8 percentage points behind the No vote, this position has been reversed and Yes now have a 9 percentage point advantage over the No vote.
TNS surveys over the past six months have consistently shown that 70%-75% said they were certain to vote. This has leapt to 84% in the latest poll. This increase is evident across the population, but is especially pronounced among women and those aged 16-34 years.
Among those who say they are certain to vote, No and Yes are tied on 41%, compared with 46% and 38% respectively in the previous month. With the increase in the numbers intending to vote, the proportion of â€œDonâ€™t knowsâ€ has risen from 16% to 18%, implying that around 600,000 people are determined to vote but have not yet made a decision.
Leaving to one side the questions about how people would vote, we also asked who they thought would win the referendum. Interestingly, 45% of all voters said No would win and 31% backed Yes. Among No voters, 70% thought their side would win, while 56% of Yes voters thought that they would prevail.