The wait for another full IndyRef poll goes on – there’s not been one for nearly a fortnight

The wait for another full IndyRef poll goes on – there’s not been one for nearly a fortnight

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Fieldwork for the last published full #IndyRef poll was completed 13 days ago. See Wiki list pic.twitter.com/A0bvLYzzdi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 28, 2014 Why are there so few Scottish polls? Over the past few days I’ve been repeatedly asked when the next full IndyRef poll will be published and unfortunately I have no idea. The last full poll was by YouGov when fieldwork finished on August 15th – that’s 13 days ago. In the same period we have had…

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PB Nighthawks is open

PB Nighthawks is open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) YouGov have updated their methodology.  YouGov have also launched a new polling innovation. And this is the first result of their new polling innovation. US poised to ask Britain to join…

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UKIP looks to the seaside for that elusive first past the post Westminster breakthough

UKIP looks to the seaside for that elusive first past the post Westminster breakthough

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CON-held seats are the primary focus Whenever kippers talk about their progress in 2014 they point first to their success in the May 22nd Euros. Coming top of the poll was a major breakthrough, helped by the unique closed regional list voting system. In the first past the post elections held on the same day it was a different story – dropping 6 points on national equivalent vote share on their 2013 performance and securing 3.8% of the seats. In…

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Take the Ladbrokes 10-11 IndyRef NO victory with turnout under 80% bet

Take the Ladbrokes 10-11 IndyRef NO victory with turnout under 80% bet

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Interesting Ladbrokes http://t.co/tRoY887SzF new #IndyRef betting markets pic.twitter.com/ligF4ObYbk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 26, 2014 The best value punt, surely, for those who think independence will be defeated One of the problems for those wanting to bet on NO in the September 18th Scottish Independence referendum is that prices are so poor. About the best you can get is 1/6 which means that to make a profit of £50 you have to risk £300. A far better wager has just…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) A do-it-yourself election prediction kit. What’s going to happen if Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck in May?.. What we can learn from the list of UKIP target seats Boris Johnson confirms…

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Away from the IndyRef – today’s Populus poll sees UKIP up 4% to a record high for the firm

Away from the IndyRef – today’s Populus poll sees UKIP up 4% to a record high for the firm

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This follows an increase in the UKIP share in the ComRes online poll for IoS/S Mirror – published at the weekend and the last YouGov poll have Farage’s party up from its average for the month of about 12% to 14%. We need to see more polls, of course, but the theory was that UKIP would fade after the May Euros and headed for GE2015. Well these numbers suggest that that is not happening. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from…

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Salmond’s ICM victory in the 2nd IndyRef debate triggers a 2.5% move to YES on Betfair

Salmond’s ICM victory in the 2nd IndyRef debate triggers a 2.5% move to YES on Betfair

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But did punters misinterpret the ICM voting data? Three weeks ago during the first Salmond-Darling TV encounter the first indications that NO was having the best of it came on the Betfair betting exchange where full data on trading is made available instantly and where you are able to track it. In the two hours of the STV hosted confrontation a lot of money was traded and YES moved sharply backwards from the 22% chance position it had reached in…

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ICM has it as a decisive win for Salmond – but will his performance swing votes?

ICM has it as a decisive win for Salmond – but will his performance swing votes?

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The debate ends with the Betfair betting market unmoved. YES 13.5% chance. Now we wait for the ICM debate poll pic.twitter.com/xJiVsE52Cs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 Guardian ICM poll – Salmond – 71% Darling – 29% Sample of 500+ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 On the Betfair exchange the YES price edged up a notch from a 13.5% chance to a 13.8% one — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 My verdict was that Darling was less…

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