Darling versus Salmond – the 2nd leg: Live discussion with regular betting updates

Darling versus Salmond – the 2nd leg: Live discussion with regular betting updates

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#Indyrefdebate Before the STV debate 3 weeks ago YES was rated by punters as 22% chance on Betfair. Now a 13.5% chance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 #Indyrefdebate At half time punters still make YES a 13.5% chance on Betfair. No change. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 #bbcindyref 30 minutes into the debate and YES remains a 13.5% chance on Betfair. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 As the #Debate opens Betfair punters rate YES's…

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Ladbrokes make Salmond the favourite to “win” tonight’s debate

Ladbrokes make Salmond the favourite to “win” tonight’s debate

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Debate betting prices from Ladbrokes http://t.co/OKFhPuoEOc for tonight's Salmond-Darling BBC TV debate pic.twitter.com/SOHP52ts3N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 Surely the SNP leader will be better prepared than last time? Tonight’s the big one in the the IndyRef campaign. With postal packs due to go out by the end of the week large numbers of Scottish voters could have cast their votes a week today. The election itself is not until September 18th but the nature of the increasingly…

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Not only will the future of the UK be determined on September 18 – but Shadsy’s bonus could be on the line

Not only will the future of the UK be determined on September 18 – but Shadsy’s bonus could be on the line

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The @LadPolitics #indyref money staked chart showing more going on YES pic.twitter.com/Gj85NQLt0S — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2014 Ladbrokes are betting that it’ll be NO Great article on the IndyRef betting on the PoliticalBookie – the blog of Shadsy, a PB regular and the man who runs the politics desk at Ladbrokes. Looking at the way the betting has gone and the pattern of the wagers being made Shadsy has this very revealing observation:- “..To be totally honest, we…

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Unless independence campaigners can convince the oldies in the next 3 weeks then YES, surely, is doomed

Unless independence campaigners can convince the oldies in the next 3 weeks then YES, surely, is doomed

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Like in all elections the oldies are crucial A lot has been talked about the gender effect in the September 18th Scottish referendum and today a new Survation poll of pensioners for the Sunday Post highlights the generation battle. Not only are the oldest oldies the most certain to vote they are more than two to one for NO. The charts show the certainty to vote proportions and across the older age ranges as well as their stated voting intentions….

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ComRes online poll sees Lab lead down one to two – But are the Tories losing their toxicity?

ComRes online poll sees Lab lead down one to two – But are the Tories losing their toxicity?

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The ComRes online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out.  Is the Tories’ toxicity no longer an issue? ComRes note “the poll’s Favourability Index finds that the Conservative Party is viewed more favourably than Labour for the first time, suggesting that the Tory brand is now seen as no more “toxic” than the Labour one.” On a net basis, the Blues and Reds are tied, as ever this is just one poll, and we’ll need to…

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Let’s end this lazy assumption that UKIP voters are just Tories on holiday

Let’s end this lazy assumption that UKIP voters are just Tories on holiday

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The numbers show that this is simply not the case You read and see this all the time both inside the Westminster bubble and out of it. Ukip voters, so the pervasive narrative goes, are simply ex-CON voters who can, if Lynton Crosby plays his cards properly, be seduced back into the fold thus providing the blues with the platform to secure an overall majority next May. Thus the following is a statement that many might find hard to comprehend…

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The Populus “Mondays good for LAB, Fridays for CON” sequence finally comes to an end

The Populus “Mondays good for LAB, Fridays for CON” sequence finally comes to an end

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It had to happen at some stage, I suppose, but today’s Populus online LAB lead of 6% brings to an end an extraordinary polling sequence – that those polls published on Mondays tended to show movement towards Labour while those coming out on Fridays moved back towards the Tories. Quite why this is hard to say. Last month Anthony Wells at UKPR ran the numbers through his computer and found that since this polling series was established in July 2013…

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David Herdson wonders how much we can trust the referendum polls

David Herdson wonders how much we can trust the referendum polls

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From Prof John Curtice's site – WhatScotsThink most recent #indyref poll of polls pic.twitter.com/BVdRwjNQcu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2014 How effective are the pollsters with such a one-off event? Knowledge, information and judgement: the past, present and future of effective prediction.  The problem, as far as the Scottish referendum is concerned, is that all three are badly affected by the paucity of precedent.  There have been referendums before, both in Britain and elsewhere, but all have their drawbacks…

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