It had to happen at some stage, I suppose, but today’s Populus online LAB lead of 6% brings to an end an extraordinary polling sequence – that those polls published on Mondays tended to show movement towards Labour while those coming out on Fridays moved back towards the Tories.
Quite why this is hard to say. Last month Anthony Wells at UKPR ran the numbers through his computer and found that since this polling series was established in July 2013 LAB was averaging about a point more in the Monday surveys.
I’ve done some analysis of Populus samples and nothing seems to stand out.
Is there something different about online samples during the weekend compared with those mid-week? Could it be that respondents felt different during the weekend and were more inclined to the red team?
I don’t know if this is simply a fluke but it has been fun charting it. I like the reaction from Tory activists – “let’s be thankful that general elections take place on Thursday not at the weekend”.