The polling says UKIP are the most extreme and the least fit to govern party

The polling says UKIP are the most extreme and the least fit to govern party

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From the Ipsos-Mori that featured this morning, Ipsos-Mori asked the following “I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…” The two findings that stood out were UKIP were comfortably viewed as the most extreme, and the least fit to govern in answer to that question.   My own thinking is these are the kind of findings that will…

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Understanding the Ed Miliband polling paradox

Understanding the Ed Miliband polling paradox

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How are Labour’s maintaining its poll leads, despite Ed’s poor ratings? One of the things that has been consistent in the last few years, the voters don’t rate Ed Miliband and he often trails David Cameron on most polling questions. In the past, I’ve shown that Ed Miliband’s ratings as Leader of the Opposition are very poor compared to his predecessors, only Michael Foot had worse ratings one year before a General Election, yet Labour still continue to generally lead…

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The SNP might have lost the referendum but its support reaches new high

The SNP might have lost the referendum but its support reaches new high

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Survation find that one in two Scot would gibe it their vote Details have been published this afternoon of a Survation phone poll in Scotland carried out in the immediate aftermath of the referendum defeat. The figures are in the chart above and show shares which I believe have the SNP at a new high in any poll. Clearly the high profile and the hugely energised electorate have given the party a huge boost. The numbers are a timely reminder…

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The IndyRef maybe over but a fierce flare-up is going on over the polling

The IndyRef maybe over but a fierce flare-up is going on over the polling

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The Mail on Sunday this morning Mail on Sunday asks if the YouGov 2% YES poll was a rogue & cost UK £45bn http://t.co/CQ393tPpzF pic.twitter.com/sYWq9Yqhk2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2014 YouGov’s Kellner responds War of words between developing Mail/S & YouGov's Kellner http://t.co/La4AQIJlkv over that YES 2% poll 2 wks ago pic.twitter.com/EVGeHaFsBq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2014 Some polling lessons for an EU referendum? Two things gave that 2% YES lead its greater potency: the advance hyping…

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Do as I have done and re-invest some of your IndyRef winnings on Mayor Dorothy in Watford

Do as I have done and re-invest some of your IndyRef winnings on Mayor Dorothy in Watford

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PaddyPower’s 5/2 is a great bet One election result from Friday that barely got reported was the selection by the Watford Lib Dems of Mayor Dorothy Thornhill as candidate for the general election. This is something that I had been anticipating and over the months and have built up what is my biggest GE2015 betting position on her with a best price of 11/2. Dorothy Thornhill is a remarkable figure in the town who on the disastrous May 2014 elections…

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The winner of the PB Indyref competition is….

The winner of the PB Indyref competition is….

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….David Evershed, who got the Yes percentage spot on. David, can you contact Mike here so you can receive your £50 worth of free bets from Shadsy. You can check out your own performance by clicking here. Many thanks once again to Shadsy of Ladbrokes politics for donating the prize, and Mark Hopkins for developing the software for us to submit our entries. TSE

The simple solution to the question of Scottish MPs: Do what was done in Northern Ireland in 1920

The simple solution to the question of Scottish MPs: Do what was done in Northern Ireland in 1920

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Look at how Northern Ireland’s numbers were changed Reduce the number of Scottish MPs I love the wonderfully simple solution to the Scottish MPs question by JohnO on the previous thread:- “We have been here before. Until 1972 the former Northern Ireland Parliament at Stormont enjoyed full devo max powers. What was the messy, rough and ready, probably anomalous but characteristically ‘British’ answer to compensate the rest of the country? Simple. Just make the NI constituencies at Westminster far larger…

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English votes for English laws (EV4EL) – the question is whether Cameron is able to deliver

English votes for English laws (EV4EL) – the question is whether Cameron is able to deliver

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Election pledges won’t count after the Lisbon Treaty experience In 1787, a group of Americans came together and wrote a whole new constitution for their country from scratch in the space of four hot and humid months.  Two and a quarter centuries later, it’s still going strong.  True, they didn’t have the complicating factors of histories and traditions or established institutions that the UK has now but they did have to contend with other barriers to success, perhaps at least…

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