It’s hard to see anyone other than Nicola Sturgeon winning the SNP leadership

It’s hard to see anyone other than Nicola Sturgeon winning the SNP leadership

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Nicola Sturgeon 1/3 favourite with William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1dFWfn to succeed Salmond as SNP keader. pic.twitter.com/S2LRjzaSlj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 After Alex Salmond’s not unexpected departure this afternoon following the YES defeat in the referendum the bookies have installed his depity, Nicola Sturgeon, as odds on favourite. Looking down the list of possibles from the bookies it is hard to see any alternative. But who knows? I thought that she had good referendum campaign and managed to avoid…

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The referendum claims its first casualty – Alex Salmond

The referendum claims its first casualty – Alex Salmond

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pic.twitter.com/FQ3EkyeDrY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 BBC report on Salmond pic.twitter.com/Y4feUFJoeM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 You could have got 3/1 from Paddy Power on this during the night. In many ways this was the natural conclusion to his fight over the years. Salmond had his brilliant success at the Holyrood elections when the SNP achieved what no other party had ever done before – a majority in the Scottish Parliament. It was that election that…

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Local By-Election Preview: September 18th 2014 (Referendum Day)

Local By-Election Preview: September 18th 2014 (Referendum Day)

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Abergele, Pensarn on Conwy (Lab Defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 19, Conservatives 13, Plaid Cymru 12, Labour 10, Liberal Democrats 5 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 14) Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 407 (55%), Independent 186 (25%), Conservative 145 (20%) Candidates duly nominated: Barry Griffiths (Ind), Val Parker (Ind), John Pitt (Con), Michael Smith (Ind), Rick Stubbs (Lab), Ken Sudlow (Ind), Sarah Wardlaw (UKIP) Conwy is one of these councils were the…

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After a challenging election the final surveys from Ipsos-MORI, Survation and Panelbase win the polling accuracy race

After a challenging election the final surveys from Ipsos-MORI, Survation and Panelbase win the polling accuracy race

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The polling lessons of September 18th As I have been repeatedly saying over the past few weeks the referendum posed a massive challenge for the pollsters. A big aspect, featured in Marf’s carton this morning, were what became known as the “shy Noes” – those who opposed change but were often reluctant in the emotion-charged atmosphere of the election to say so. The other big uncertainty was the record turnout with groups of voters who’d never been to a polling…

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A solid win for NO but what about that “vow” by Cameron, Clegg and Miliband?

A solid win for NO but what about that “vow” by Cameron, Clegg and Miliband?

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@MSmithsonPB A shy No in Lenzie East Dinbartonshire pic.twitter.com/kA20O1uvPJ — Dr Bel Brooks-Gordon (@BelindaBG) September 19, 2014 Curtice says that the NO winning margin will be bigger than that predicted by the polls — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 Better Together's Jim Murphy celebrating with a supporter pic.twitter.com/kpxb4hNrxg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 This front page could come to haunt the three leaders This front page from the Daily Record is set to dominate Westminster politics. It's…

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The first four results are in – It is looking for great for No

The first four results are in – It is looking for great for No

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Western Isles goes NO 53.4%. (yes 46.4%) Another disappointment for YES as some polls suggested it wld be yes camp's biggest potential win — Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) September 19, 2014 Ouch. YES fails to win the Western Isles — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2014 TSE

The early turnout figures shows it will be a record breaking turnout.

The early turnout figures shows it will be a record breaking turnout.

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Turnup figures coming in (not turnout – as includes spoilt ballots) Orkney 83.7%, Clackmannanshire 88.6% — Rob Ford (Britain) (@robfordmancs) September 18, 2014 Inverclyde total ballots cast 87.4 #indyref — Rob Ford (Britain) (@robfordmancs) September 18, 2014 Renfrewshire total ballots cast 87.3% — Rob Ford (Britain) (@robfordmancs) September 18, 2014 Though Dundee’s figure was a surprise Dundee turnout is 78.8%. Its been dubbed "Yes City" – fact turnout is lower than in some other areas could be disappointing for Yes…

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The indyref results thread – As YouGov have a poll out

The indyref results thread – As YouGov have a poll out

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Like the Ipsos-Mori, there’s a small swing to No, as the Betfair price on Yes hits 14.5 YouGov #IndyRef prediction: YES 46%, NO 54% – http://t.co/huG6uJFiJG — YouGov (@YouGov) September 18, 2014 The YouGov poll isn’t an exit poll, but I post it here for the sake of completeness. Nearly 2,000 Scots were contacted by YouGov after they had been to the polling stations. So the polling and the bookies makes for great reading for Unionists, but as ever, we need…

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