politicalbetting.com – Page 1309 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

The limits of private polling

24/9/2014 TSE Comments 0 Comment

What do Alex Salmond & Mitt Romney have in common? http://t.co/V9a2WYSixk pic.twitter.com/rxTLcE8rb4 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 24, 2014 Both had private polling showing they were going to win. For we followers and obsessives of opinion polls, there are two words that grab our attention like no others, those two words are “private polling”, there’s some belief that “private polling” is much more sophisticated and accurate, than the normal public polling, but is it? Mitt Romney’s internal polling in…

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Marf on Ed Miliband’s speech

24/9/2014 TSE Comments 0 Comment

First polling on EdM’s policy plans get quite good public support

24/9/2014 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Survation have conducted an instant reaction poll on Ed Miliband’s speech. Note, on the tabs, I’ve condensed the questions asked down to a brief outline of the policy for formatting reasons, the actual questions asked by survation are more comprehensive. As we can see, all of the major policy announcements enjoy either majority or plurality support, so Ed will be delighted, especially if it leads to an increase in Labour’s share of the vote in the voting intention polls. However,…

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Some of tomorrow’s front pages and tonight’s yougov.

23/9/2014 TSE Comments 0 Comment

GUARDIAN: Miliband's 2.5bn pledge puts NHS at heart of election battle #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/ODupyBb7dQ — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) September 23, 2014 INDEPENDENT: Obama's Damascene conversion #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/i3JnDAhrmH — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) September 23, 2014 Tonight’s YouGov makes for pleasant reading for Labour and Ed. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead up five to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) September 23, 2014 I’d remember the two usual caveats, polling…

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The Ed Miliband speech – The Highlights

23/9/2014 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Ed's speech to conference pic.twitter.com/0kUkZtWCLI — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 23, 2014 Highlights from Ed's speech pic.twitter.com/v8sI8iuRvZ — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 23, 2014 Highlights from Ed's speech – Part II pic.twitter.com/5ilxSCgKA6 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 23, 2014 But will it be overshadowed by events elsewhere? But did Obama overshadow Ed's speech? pic.twitter.com/XCJbgHtWaL — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 23, 2014 Apologies, but I’ve not been able to watch the speech in full, I only…

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Ed’s big day – But is the big news of the day just outside of Manchester?

23/9/2014 TSE Comments 0 Comment

His speech from last year Ed’s last two party conference speeches have dominated the political landscape, two years ago it was the One Nation speech, last year it was the energy price freeze speech. Both speeches saw a temporary uplift in his personal ratings. This year, given that this is his last speech to conference before the general election, I’m expecting a major announcement, my own hunch, based purely on my feelings, is that we’re going to get something to…

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Why I’ve taken the 6/1 on Alistair Carmichael to be the next to leave the cabinet

23/9/2014 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In the summer, there were stories that Jo SwinsonÂ will replaceÂ Alistair Carmichael as Scottish Secretary following the independence referendum regardless of the result.Â Â During the last weeks of the indyref campaign, there were stories that Carmichael would resign immediately in the event of a Yes, which pushed his price out to as low as 1/3 last week. Given he was 1/3Â Â and 5/6 at various stages last week, I thought the 5/6 was value, with the stories in the summer he would make…

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Interview with the punter who bet 900k on no winning the Indyref

22/9/2014 TSE Comments 0 Comment

listen to ‘Jeremy speaks to gambler who placed Â£900,000 bet on 'No' vote ’ on Audioboo If you click the play button above, you’ll be able to listen to the interview. Here’s a link to an article accompanying the interview. I always find it fascinating listening to the reasons and strategies why other people bet the way they do, because if they’re successful, it is will be wise to replicate their approach in the future, if they’re not…

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