PaddyPower’s 5/2 is a great bet
One election result from Friday that barely got reported was the selection by the Watford Lib Dems of Mayor Dorothy Thornhill as candidate for the general election.
This is something that I had been anticipating and over the months and have built up what is my biggest GE2015 betting position on her with a best price of 11/2.
Dorothy Thornhill is a remarkable figure in the town who on the disastrous May 2014 elections day for her party was returned for the fourth time as elected Mayor. Watford is one of the 18 English local authorities which after local referenda have this system of local government.
To give you an idea of Dorothy’s appeal her first round vote share of 45.9% was the precisely the same as what she achieved on general election day in 2010. Check out her electoral record here. Although the parliamentary seat is not quite contiguous with the local authority area it mostly is there.
The May 2014 Ashcroft constituency poll pointed to this being a tight contest with just five points separating the three main parties. At the time of that poll the Lib Dems had not selected their candidate.
General elections are not, of course, mayoral elections and different consideration probably apply. But voters are not selecting a party or a prime minister but an individual to be their champion at Westminster. Watford looks set to be what will be a very rare result on May 7th 2015 – a Lib Dem gain. I rate Dorothy’s chances at better than evens.
PaddyPower have her at 5/2. That won’t last long.