New marginals polling from ComRes find 5.5% CON to LAB swing

New marginals polling from ComRes find 5.5% CON to LAB swing

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There’s been a sharp move to LAB since last poll in June A new ComRes / ITV News poll of the 40 most marginal Labour-Conservative constituencies, shows Labour holding an 11 point lead over the Conservatives. At the 2010 General Election the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats so the swing is 5.5% The latest figures together with comparisons on GE2010 and the last such poll by ComRes in June are shown in the chart above….

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Lord Ashcroft poll is out – Labour is on course for a majority

Lord Ashcroft poll is out – Labour is on course for a majority

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There’s a 6 point swing from Con to Lab in this polling – This would put Ed Miliband into Downing Street with a majority of 62, assuming UNS.   The @LordAshcroft polling pic.twitter.com/KcMyqbTeEO — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 28, 2014 It also makes for unpleasant reading for the Lib Dems, as Lord Ashcroft notes, A lesson from the blue-yellow marginals. Incumbency is not enough, it appears that the Yellows are on course to lose seats to both the Tories and…

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Rochester and Strood: The betting begins with UKIP the odds-on favourite

Rochester and Strood: The betting begins with UKIP the odds-on favourite

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Rochester & Strood byelection odds: 2/5 UKIP 3/1 Cons 8/1 Labour — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 28, 2014   My initial thinking is to back the Tories and Labour, based on the following tweets last night, and well Labour could come through the middle. Hopefully other bookies will open markets on this by election. No 10 source on the Mark Reckless byelection: "We would hope to win it" — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) September 27, 2014 (Significant because No10 don't say that about…

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As we await the Lord Ashcroft polling this afternoon

As we await the Lord Ashcroft polling this afternoon

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Here’s a preview of what to expect (Note these are my selected highlights) Just over a quarter of those who voted Conservative in 2010 said they would vote for a different party in an election tomorrow. Nearly three-quarters of these now support Ukip, with most of the remainder going to Labour. Most of those who have switched from the Tories say they will still consider voting for the party next May. About 1 in 8 of those who did not…

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It’s like back to the 90s for the Tories on what is turning out to be Cameron’s Black Saturday

It’s like back to the 90s for the Tories on what is turning out to be Cameron’s Black Saturday

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Today reminds me of the 1990s and the end of John Major’s administration. First up was Mark Reckless’ defection to UKIP and in the last hour or so, Brooks Newmark, the Conservative minister for civil society, resigns after being caught sending explicit photographs of himself to women over the internet.  For those who were optimistic that the Tories would remain in power post May 2015, today probably extinguished those hopes. I still think there’s one defection to come, timed for maximum…

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Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP

Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP

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Not the start Cameron wanted before the Tory conference Mark Reckless Tory MP defects to UKIP — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 27, 2014 UPDATE Mark Reckless follows the Carswell principle and forces a by-election in his seat. — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 27, 2014 UPDATE II – VIDEO OF RECKLESS ANNOUNCING HIS DEFECTION UPDATE III – constituency phone polling by Survation in Rotherham, Boston & Skegness and North Thanet New constituency phone polling by @Survation in Rotherham, Boston…

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David Herdson on whether Miliband can breeze to victory on the strength of not being Tory

David Herdson on whether Miliband can breeze to victory on the strength of not being Tory

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Is Labour keeping its powder dry or was that all there is? Like many a football team 2-1 up in a cup tie with ten minutes to go, a cautious defensiveness seems to have settled over the Labour Party, judging by their conference just gone.  The contrast with last year’s headline-grabbing energy price freeze policy was stark.  The big announcements were to increase the minimum wage by about 4p a year more than the average RPI rate for the current…

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Local By-Election Results : September 25th 2014 – UPDATE and a Marf cartoon

Local By-Election Results : September 25th 2014 – UPDATE and a Marf cartoon

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Epping, Hemnal on Epping Forest (Conservative Defence) Result: Liberal Democrats 607 (43% +7%), Conservatives 386 (28% -14%), UKIP 339 (24% +16%), Green 69 (5% +1%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 221 (15%) on a swing of 10.5% from Con to Lib Dem Lovelace on Guildford (Conservative Defence) Result: Liberal Democrats 555 (61% +47%), Conservatives 255 (28% -43%), UKIP 63 (7%), Labour 32 (4% -11%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 300 (33%) on…

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