Will UKIP overshadow Cameron’s big day?

Will UKIP overshadow Cameron’s big day?

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Wednesday's i front page – Trust me to protect the NHS, says Cameron #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/nQylBrzFH1 — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) September 30, 2014 As the focus is on a defector, Dave is set to make the NHS the centre piece of the election. Coupled with the seven day a week GP promise announced yesterday, it is clear what the Tories will be focussing upon. I suspect the NHS will form a key part of the election battle. It will be…

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UKIP down 2 in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

UKIP down 2 in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

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The fieldwork was Friday to Sunday inclusive, so some of it was conducted during Mark Reckless’ defection and Brooks Newmark’s resignation. There’ll probably be relief at Tory HQ, given that and the the polling was conducted in the aftermath of the Labour conference that they are up 1% and not down a significant amount. As with most other pollsters, there’s been no bounce for Labour post their conference. As ever, conference polling can be erratic, and we should wait until…

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Memo to the Tories: Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement

Memo to the Tories: Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement

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Since the defection of Mark Reckless to UKIP, I’ve not been surprised at the opprobrium heaped at Mark Reckless from the Tories, mostly because of his timing and his assurances that he wouldn’t defect. Tory MP to BuzzFeed on Mark Reckless defecting: “I can’t say the word c**t but he’s a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse.” — Jim Waterson (@jimwaterson) September 28, 2014 The above tweet, shows the depth of the anger, the thing that…

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Lord Ashcroft tells the Tories that first time incumbency bonus is not a right – its something that has to be earned

Lord Ashcroft tells the Tories that first time incumbency bonus is not a right – its something that has to be earned

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Why things might be very different on May 7th next year One of the great hopes that the Tories have clung onto as their polling deficits continue is what’s known as “first time incumbency bonus” – the extra benefit that those MPs defending their seats for the first time have experienced in the past. The chart above shows the average increases in CON votes shares last time based on different categories of seat. As can be seen new candidates seeking…

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Iain Dale says a defection is imminent

Iain Dale says a defection is imminent

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Told by a normally reliable source another Tory UKIP defection is imminent. Stand by your beds. — Iain Dale (@IainDale) September 29, 2014 Just taken the 33/1 and 20/1 on Davies and Henderson on the next Tory MP to defect pic.twitter.com/JxE6APLnTd — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 29, 2014 TSE Update on UKIP defection. Sources tell me it's not an MP. — Iain Dale (@IainDale) September 29, 2014

Corporeal looks at electoral precedent

Corporeal looks at electoral precedent

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The next election result is likely to be a strange one, as the following Ipsos-Mori tweet alludes to No gov increase in vote share since 1955, no opposition in office after 1 term out since 1931, no 2 hung parliaments in a row since 1910… — Ipsos MORI (@IpsosMORI) September 22, 2014 (On a follow up tweet they noted that it should read no majority government, Wilson’s calling of a swift 2nd election in 1974 produced a small uptick for…

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