Here’s a preview of what to expect
(Note these are my selected highlights)
- Just over a quarter of those who voted Conservative in 2010 said they would vote for a different party in an election tomorrow.
- Nearly three-quarters of these now support Ukip, with most of the remainder going to Labour.
- Most of those who have switched from the Tories say they will still consider voting for the party next May.
- About 1 in 8 of those who did not vote for the party in 2010 say they may do so next time. These people are united by a positive view of the prime minister and the belief that the Tories are on the right track and need more time to finish the job.
- But for most people the election might as well be eight years away, never mind eight months. Most of the uncommitted voters who took part in my research had given it little or no thought and did not intend to until much closer to the day. There is still time for the Tories to turn their fortunes around before next May.
- Nearly 9 in 10 Tory loyalists and those who have switched to the party since 2010 said either that they were already feeling some of the benefits of the recovery or, more likely, that they were not feeling any better off yet but expected to do so at some point.
- Meanwhile, more than 4 in 10 defectors said they had not seen an improvement in their circumstances and did not expect any. Ukip voters were the most likely of all to think any recovery would pass them by.
- Â More than three-quarters of loyalists and 7 in 10 Tory converts said cuts needed to continue for the next five years; nearly half of defectors said either austerity was no longer necessary or had never been needed in the first place.
Lord Ashcroft’s article for the Sunday Times is available here, it is not paywalled
I’m expecting the full polling out at 2pm, I’ll do a thread on that, what makes the Lord Ashcroft polling so interesting, is the large sample sizes, in this instance 8,000 people were polled.
But based on these excerpts so far, given the events of yesterday, there’s enough grounds for optimism for the Blues, particularly points 3 and 5. However 1, 7 & 8 will cause some alarm for team Blue.