The big and only real question is how the changes in the national mood are playing out in the marginals

The big and only real question is how the changes in the national mood are playing out in the marginals

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pic.twitter.com/Ddrv9Y1o56 — PolPics (@PolPics) November 14, 2014 Have seats that were in LAB’s grasp now fallen away There’s no doubt that this has been a dramatic polling week with apparently a move from LAB that is changing the long established view that the red team was heading for victory. But these are national polls of 1,000 sample sizes for phone surveys and up to 2,000 for online ones. What we need to see before jumping to conclusions is whether the…

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Local By-Election Preview : November 13th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : November 13th 2014

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Queen Edith’s on Cambridge (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 25, Liberal Democrats 14, Independents 2, Conservative 1 (Labour majority of 8) Result of last election in ward (2012): Labour 1,084 (40%), Liberal Democrats 963 (35%), Conservatives 513 (19%), Green 172 (6%) Candidates duly nominated: Rahima Ahammed (Lab), Andrew Bower (Con), Joel Chalfen (Green), Viki Sanders (Lib Dem) Brent (Con Defence) and Littlebrook (Lab Defence) on Dartford Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 31,…

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Labour insider, Henry G Manson, on the changed mood within the movement about EdM

Labour insider, Henry G Manson, on the changed mood within the movement about EdM

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The leader renews his vows with the party & role as underdog The grassroots response to Ed Miliband’s recent leadership uncertainties showed more enthusiasm for his leadership than at any other time – including at the point of his election. While certain MPs were wobbling, the party’s foot soldiers and supporters were bashing out 60,000 tweets of support. Yes, Labour folk are suckers for an underdog, but this felt different. There were reasons why they backed him. The stance on…

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Beware the over-prompting of Mark Reckless and UKIP in Rochester by-election polls

Beware the over-prompting of Mark Reckless and UKIP in Rochester by-election polls

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"@cgi247: Mark Reckless on the campaign trail in Rochester #UKIP pic.twitter.com/qUcjwth85k" — Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) November 4, 2014 The intro to voting questions in the Ashcroft poll As you may know, the Member of Parliament for Rochester & Strood, Mark Reckless, has announced that he is leaving the Conservative Party and joining the UK Independence Party (UKIP). He has therefore decided to resign as an MP and to fight the resulting by-election in Rochester & Strood as the UKIP candidate….

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Nigel Farage reinforces David Cameron’s own anti-Ukip squeeze message Is the Blairite group Progress plotting to back Chuka Umunna in a leadership bid? The limits of Hashtag Loyalty Ed Miliband might…

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Just when it looked as though LAB had got through its leadership troubles Ipsos-MORI has worst poll for party since GE10

Just when it looked as though LAB had got through its leadership troubles Ipsos-MORI has worst poll for party since GE10

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The Ipsos-MORI monthly poll has the worst figures for LAB of any since 2010 pic.twitter.com/JkrwKdTOhf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014 EdM's net Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings 8% worse than Nick Clegg's pic.twitter.com/4z6AVFhety — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014

The “any other” government option on this new Betfair market is worth a punt

The “any other” government option on this new Betfair market is worth a punt

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Given huge uncertainty the "any other government/coalition" option seems the value bet on this new Betfair market pic.twitter.com/u36aucSQPx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014 I’m betting on the final option on Betfair’s post GE2015 government market simply because of the massive uncertainty and how unlikely it is that either the red or blue teams will be able to govern on their own. To take one example which would make me a winner is the DUP contingent of MPs. There…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Most Tories now expect a party schism over Europe. After the ructions over the EU arrest warrant, the only question is whether the split can be postponed till after the 2015 election…

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