Given huge uncertainty the "any other government/coalition" option seems the value bet on this new Betfair market pic.twitter.com/u36aucSQPx
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014
I’m betting on the final option on Betfair’s post GE2015 government market simply because of the massive uncertainty and how unlikely it is that either the red or blue teams will be able to govern on their own.
To take one example which would make me a winner is the DUP contingent of MPs. There maybe at least eight of them and they could be in a powerful position if current trends continue. They would exact a high price but they could provide a pathway to power.
Given the Scottish polling then it’s highly likely that the SNP will have many more MPs than the six of 2010. Could they be tempted, for the right deal, to be part of a London government? We don’t know.
The very fact that the LDs are likely to have far fewer MPs means that they alone might not have the numbers to partner with one of the main parties to create an overall majority.
UKIP look set to win some seats but that might not be enough for them, on their own, to take the Tories over the line.
So many possible combinations and so many ways that this bet could be winner.