The Ipsos-MORI monthly poll has the worst figures for LAB of any since 2010 pic.twitter.com/JkrwKdTOhf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014 EdM's net Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings 8% worse than Nick Clegg's pic.twitter.com/4z6AVFhety — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014
Given huge uncertainty the "any other government/coalition" option seems the value bet on this new Betfair market pic.twitter.com/u36aucSQPx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014 I’m betting on the final option on Betfair’s post GE2015 government market simply because of the massive uncertainty and how unlikely it is that either the red or blue teams will be able to govern on their own. To take one example which would make me a winner is the DUP contingent of MPs. There…
Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Most Tories now expect a party schism over Europe. After the ructions over the EU arrest warrant, the only question is whether the split can be postponed till after the 2015 election…
The GE15 finding will be a deterrent for other potential defectors The detail of the Ashcroft Rochester poll are jjust out and feature in the chart above. The 12% UKIP lead is very much in line with other recent Rochester polling from Survation and ComRes and unless there’s a sharp turnaround in the the next week Mark Reckless looks to set return to Westminster. But there’s a huge sting in the tale for Reckless. The sample was also asked how…
LAB chances of overall majority at GE2015 fall to new low, a 23.2% chance, on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/CbSO0PuBgM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2014 Tory chances of an overall majority at GE2015 fall to a new low, a 14.3% chance, on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/v2PkIlFbd1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2014 Another hung parliament is looking even more likely The two charts above represent betting developments that have never happened before. Both the chances of a CON…
Will there ever be a time when things European are not so divisive for the Tory party? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014
At last. The GE15 Commons seats spread betting opens with this from SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk pic.twitter.com/jgmIA7W0FX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014 Mid points on the SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk Commons seats spreads LAB 294 seats CON 276 LD 28 UKIP 9 SNP 21 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014 Now the betting can get really serious For me political betting is about the spreads where things like commons seats are traded like stocks and share and where the more you are right the more you…
CON literature in Rochester is probably a taster for GE15. Looks quite effective pic.twitter.com/s8krhqg6KF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014 And the polling that suggests they’ll struggle with UKIP voters