Leading psephologist argues that likeability ratings are better predictor of voting behaviour than “best leader” questions

Leading psephologist argues that likeability ratings are better predictor of voting behaviour than “best leader” questions

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Essex Uni psephologist Prof Paul Whiteley argues that EdM not far behind DC on likeability http://t.co/xch2fvo90D pic.twitter.com/1iXsXb3d82 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 9, 2014 On this measure Ed is not far behind One of the issues that the current Ed Miliband issue has brought out is what are the best form of leader ratings. Prof Paul Whiteley, of University of Essex who ran BPIX, posted an interesting article last night suggesting that some of the standard measures like “best leader” might…

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The big picture is that Cameron’s Conservatives continue to lose much more to UKIP than Miliband’s LAB

The big picture is that Cameron’s Conservatives continue to lose much more to UKIP than Miliband’s LAB

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While that remains the Tories are heading for defeat After a massive polling Saturday and the ongoing speculation about Ed Miliband let’s step back for a moment and look at the wider picture. The chart above is from the latest batch of Lord Ashcroft’s CON-LAB marginals polling with an aggregate sample about three times as large as all the data that came out overnight. It highlights the big development that appears not to be going away – the rise of…

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The Saturday night polling news starts to come out and it doesn’t look good for Ed

The Saturday night polling news starts to come out and it doesn’t look good for Ed

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The Saturday rolling poll thread Survation/MoS testing voting intentions with different LAB leaders. Cooper comes off worse – Johnson & Umuna best pic.twitter.com/sfh9m8VNWI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2014 YouGov/S Times poll has only 34% of LAB voters thinking Ed Miliband is up to the job as party leader — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2014 Other side of coin is that less than 6 months from GE15 two recent polls, Opinium and Survation have the Tories down in…

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It’s being reported that Salmond will try to make his come-back taking on Danny Alexander in Inverness

It’s being reported that Salmond will try to make his come-back taking on Danny Alexander in Inverness

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Interesting. Salmond said to be planning bid to stand in Danny Alexander's seat at GE15 http://t.co/B5ei68uLG5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2014 SNP 4/9 favoutite to oust Alexander in Inverness Ladbrokes http://t.co/OKFhPuoEOc latest odds on Inverness where it might be Salmond vs Alexander 4/9 SNP 2/1 LD 10/1 LAB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2014 How the seat voted at GE10 How Inverness voted at GE10 pic.twitter.com/M1ZqVu6PTB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2014 The extraordinary Inverness result from GE1992…

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Downing Street might have just saved Ed Miliband

Downing Street might have just saved Ed Miliband

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The EU Budget deal has moved the story on and taken the pressure off If you have bad news to get out, then Friday evening is as good a time as any to do it. MPs have gone back to their constituencies, the public is paying less attention and it falls in that gap between the weekday and weekend media. The timing of the announcement that the government is to pay the £1.7bn demanded by the EU – late, in…

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This week’s Local By-Election Results: A good day for the Tories

This week’s Local By-Election Results: A good day for the Tories

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Mevagissey on Cornwall (Lab Defence) Result: Conservative 348 (32% +8%), UKIP 281 (26% -2%), Labour 204 (19% -11%), Liberal Democrats 197 (18% +4%), Greens 50 (5% -2%) Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 67 (6%) on a swing of 5% from UKIP to Conservative Bilton on Rugby (Con Defence) Result: Conservatives 668 (42%), UKIP 325 (20%), Liberal Democrats 280 (18%), Labour 212 (13%), Independent 60 (4%), Greens 37 (2%), TUSC 10 (1%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of…

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