David Herdson on Saturday: Harriet Harman could become LAB’s Michael Howard?

David Herdson on Saturday: Harriet Harman could become LAB’s Michael Howard?

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The risks of an election can be avoided by not holding one Sixty thousand tweets of support for Ed Miliband this last week may have put a dampener on speculation about his leadership survival prospects, though not as much as the definitive statement from Alan Johnson ruling himself out of any future contest. For all the goodwill in the country, those who have the Labour leader’s future in their hands remain the MPs and shadow ministers at Westminster. For the…

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The Tories the big movers in the first week of GE15 Commons Spread betting

The Tories the big movers in the first week of GE15 Commons Spread betting

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Those who “bought” CON on Monday are into profit already It had been a long time coming but the opening of GE15 commons seats spread betting market from Sporting Index was a big moment in the betting build up to next May. To me it is the finest form of political betting because you “trade” commons seats as if they were stocks and shares and the more you are right the more you win. Alas the more you are wrong…

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The LD gain a seat from LAB but lose one to CON in this week’s round of local elections

The LD gain a seat from LAB but lose one to CON in this week’s round of local elections

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Queen Edith’s on Cambridge (Lab Defence) Result: Liberal Democrats 933 (36% +1%), Labour 790 (31% -9%), Conservatives 614 (24% +5%), Green 222 (9% +3%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour with a majority of 143 (5%) on a swing of 5% from Labour to Liberal Democrat Brent (Con Defence) and Littlebrook (Lab Defence) on Dartford Brent Result: Conservatives 579 (45%), Labour 402 (31%), UKIP 316 (24%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 177 (14%) Littlebrook Result: Labour 358 (47%), UKIP 220…

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The big and only real question is how the changes in the national mood are playing out in the marginals

The big and only real question is how the changes in the national mood are playing out in the marginals

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pic.twitter.com/Ddrv9Y1o56 — PolPics (@PolPics) November 14, 2014 Have seats that were in LAB’s grasp now fallen away There’s no doubt that this has been a dramatic polling week with apparently a move from LAB that is changing the long established view that the red team was heading for victory. But these are national polls of 1,000 sample sizes for phone surveys and up to 2,000 for online ones. What we need to see before jumping to conclusions is whether the…

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Local By-Election Preview : November 13th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : November 13th 2014

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Queen Edith’s on Cambridge (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 25, Liberal Democrats 14, Independents 2, Conservative 1 (Labour majority of 8) Result of last election in ward (2012): Labour 1,084 (40%), Liberal Democrats 963 (35%), Conservatives 513 (19%), Green 172 (6%) Candidates duly nominated: Rahima Ahammed (Lab), Andrew Bower (Con), Joel Chalfen (Green), Viki Sanders (Lib Dem) Brent (Con Defence) and Littlebrook (Lab Defence) on Dartford Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 31,…

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Labour insider, Henry G Manson, on the changed mood within the movement about EdM

Labour insider, Henry G Manson, on the changed mood within the movement about EdM

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The leader renews his vows with the party & role as underdog The grassroots response to Ed Miliband’s recent leadership uncertainties showed more enthusiasm for his leadership than at any other time – including at the point of his election. While certain MPs were wobbling, the party’s foot soldiers and supporters were bashing out 60,000 tweets of support. Yes, Labour folk are suckers for an underdog, but this felt different. There were reasons why they backed him. The stance on…

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Beware the over-prompting of Mark Reckless and UKIP in Rochester by-election polls

Beware the over-prompting of Mark Reckless and UKIP in Rochester by-election polls

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"@cgi247: Mark Reckless on the campaign trail in Rochester #UKIP pic.twitter.com/qUcjwth85k" — Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) November 4, 2014 The intro to voting questions in the Ashcroft poll As you may know, the Member of Parliament for Rochester & Strood, Mark Reckless, has announced that he is leaving the Conservative Party and joining the UK Independence Party (UKIP). He has therefore decided to resign as an MP and to fight the resulting by-election in Rochester & Strood as the UKIP candidate….

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Nigel Farage reinforces David Cameron’s own anti-Ukip squeeze message Is the Blairite group Progress plotting to back Chuka Umunna in a leadership bid? The limits of Hashtag Loyalty Ed Miliband might…

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