politicalbetting.com – Page 1274 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Maybe we should all stop looking at the polls and wait till after the holiday season

16/12/2014 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Since Osborne's Autumn statement all the pollsters bar YouGov have had LAB leads pic.twitter.com/hQTcWdT8XI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2014 Since Nov 10 all polls bar YouGov’s have had LAB leads Interesting looking through the Wiki list of Westminster voting intention polls and one thing stands out – LAB has maintained a lead of some sort with all the firms apart from YouGov which, of course, reports five times a week for the Sun and the Sunday Times. Above…

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LDs up 3 to 12 – the big mover in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

15/12/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

CON/LAB/LD all up – UKIP/GREEN down The LDs will be delighted with this poll even though they are only half the level that they got at GE2010 – but this is a bit of progress. UKIP and the Greens are down while LAB and move up. It should emphasised that the long-standing ComRes series of phone polls for the Independent is completely separate from the monthly online surveys from the Indy on Sunday. Tonight’s poll also found that those sampled…

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England ONLY data from latest ComRes poll shows that the Tories have massive struggle south of the border

15/12/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

Latest ComRes online poll ENGLAND only compared with GE10 England result pic.twitter.com/q7pUA1iaBU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2014 At GE2010 CON led in England by 11.2%. Now just 1% Given that Scotland is operating totally differently at the moment I have been trying to identify the England only poll shares from the main surveys. The chart above is from yesterday’s IoS/S Mirror poll by ComRes and has the Tories just 1% ahead in England. That is ten points short…

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Headline figures of many polls feature views of many more men than women and this could be skewing results

15/12/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

Fewer women say they are certain to vote and they are more likely to be undecided Just look at the chart which is based on the Populus November aggregate data with a very large overall sample from 9 separate polls. As can be seen male voters account for more than 50% of each party’s support with, not unexpectedly, UKIP showing the biggest divide. What is striking is that although the overall sample is weighted properly for gender balance when it…

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The SNP is betting favourite to win in just 4 of the 41 LAB-held Scottish seats. See chart

14/12/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

However upbeat the Nats might appear they don’t seem ready to bet

Will Jim Murphy arrest Labour’s slide in the Scottish polls or will it get worse? Enter the competition

14/12/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

pic.twitter.com/Drgab0QAIL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 14, 2014 What’s the December Record/Survation poll going to show? There’s little doubt that the biggest uncertainty about next May’s general election is what’s going to happen in the 41 seats that Labour currently holds in Scotland. If recent polling turns out to be right they could be left with barely half a dozen of them – an outcome that could have a catastrophic impact on the party’s hope to return to power. It…

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Comres online poll sees the Blues up by 3 points

13/12/2014 TSE Comments 0 Comment

This month’s ComRes online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror sees Labour’s lead reduced from 4% to 1%. It fits in with what we’ve seen in recent weeks and months with other pollsters, with there being very little between Tories and Labour, the Lib Dems will be delighted to see daylight between themselves and the Greens. Onto the supplementaries, Voters see the Conservatives as more right wing than the UK Independence Party. The poll asked people to…

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Jim Murphy wins Scottish Labour leadership election with 56% of votes on first round

13/12/2014 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

.@ScottishLabour will lead us to a fairer Scotland. #ScotLabLeader pic.twitter.com/KtdCauopFf — Jim Murphy (@jimmurphymp) December 13, 2014 Murphy: "You can't have social justice on George Osborne's levels of spending and tax." — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) December 13, 2014 Fighting acceptance speech showed why SNP didn't want @jimmurphymp to be Labour's leader in Scotland — Kevin Maguire (@Kevin_Maguire) December 13, 2014 I like the way in his first Tweet Murphy has shaped the battle with the SNP – is the prize…

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