If these rumours are true then there is a smattering of value in some of these in backing the non Labour candidate/laying Labour in the constituency markets on Betfair but this may well be expectations management to get the vote out. Even the greats such as Thatcher and Cameron lost only one seat each when they took power in 1979 and 2010 (excluding a single notional loss and a technical loss to the Speaker) and Tony Blair didn’t lose a…
I still think based on anecdotes I have heard from campaigners from Tory and Labour activists across the country that the supermajority talk will help the Tories at the margins. One of the reasons the Tories got walloped in 1997 was around 2 million voters from 1992 sat it out, so Sunak’s strategy will try and stop a repeat of that and the talk has given some left leaning voters a free pass to vote Lib Dem/Green/SNP etc because it…
One the key things to be a successful political gambler is the ability to be dispassionate and be happy to bet on outcomes one personally doesn’t want to see. I have to admit I struggle why anyone would want to for the Putin appeasing sort of a bunch of fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists mostly Reform but some polls say Reform will poll over 20% on July 4th. More In Common’s analysis on how people see themselves is interesting…
This might explain why the Tory twitter account is so dire, it is staffed by child labour. The reality is that a well funded campaign versus a relatively poorly funded campaign generally one sided results, something to bear in mind when betting on this election as the Tories pull resources to defend seats with 20,000 plus majorities.. TSE
The latest MRP confirms the patterns we’ve seen with others and not dissimilar to standard VI polls when put through Electoral Calculus, where we are not fazed when polls show the Tories sub 100 and/or Sir Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition. Survation note One third of seats are currently decided by fewer than 10 points, and 132 are decided by fewer than 5 points. In these seats, Labour leads in 65, the Conservatives in 47, and the Liberal…
I hope you all enjoyed Part One. Within this Article, we will analyse and predict which candidate and which party can become victorious in the upcoming Westminster General Election. Belfast East : There were only three runners within the 2019 General Election. Naomi Long [APNI] fell just short of taking the seat by just over 1,000 votes. This year, there are 7 candidates. This seat is definitely one of the most exciting and intriguing seats within Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin have…
The chart above shows the movement on Betfair’s US Presidential winner market over the last 24 hours. TSE
The Sun are reporting that One glimmer of hope for the new regime is that the Tories look set to eat each other for a few years longer — with some party figures barely waiting for a vote to be cast before beginning a very public post-mortem. Wiser hands want a delay to any leadership election conclusion well into the autumn, or even December, as happened after their defeat in 2005. Deputy PM Oliver Dowden, under the beady watch of his mentor Lord…