Marf on Ed Miliband’s million lost voters – which could hurt Labour most

Marf on Ed Miliband’s million lost voters – which could hurt Labour most

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This the the first general election where new additions to the electoral register have to sign up individually rather than doing it on a household or other form of block basis. Labour, which attracts more young voters than the other parties, is clearly feeling vulnerable about the implementation of a measure that is likely to hurt them most. But this is the law and the party has to work within in it. Raising awareness and running youth campaigns is obviously…

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More than 1 in 5 UKIP voters at last May’s Euro’s tell TNS that they’ll be voting CON on May 7th

More than 1 in 5 UKIP voters at last May’s Euro’s tell TNS that they’ll be voting CON on May 7th

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Just over half will stick with Farage’s party The overnight TNS-BMRB poll had some data that I’d not seen before – linking what those sampled said they did in the Euros last May with their current GE15 voting intention. In that election, of course, UKIP ended up with the most votes and most MEPs. The latest polling is moderately helpful to the Tories given that just over a fifth say they’ll be backing the blue team in the general election….

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TNS-BMRB has LAB retaining it’s 7% lead while YouGov has CON and LAB level-pegging

TNS-BMRB has LAB retaining it’s 7% lead while YouGov has CON and LAB level-pegging

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LAB 35%= CON 28%= UKIP 18%-1 LD 6%+1 GRN 5%-2 OTH 9%+3 TNS-BMRB is one of nine pollsters currently producing at least monthly ahead of GE15 and is one that doesn’t quite attract the same coverage. It operates differently from all other firms. People are contacted face to face but then complete the survey online usually at home. It’s the way the firm selects its sample that makes it unique. With all polls you compare the numbers with what happened…

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LAB jump 5 with Ipsos-MORI to re-take lead

LAB jump 5 with Ipsos-MORI to re-take lead

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Latest Ipsos-@IpsosMORI phone poll CON 33 (+1); LAB 34 (+5); LIB DEM 8 (-1); UKIP 11 (-2); GREEN 8 (-1) pic.twitter.com/mna4EOTzuH — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) January 15, 2015 @Ipsos-MORI ENGLAND ONLY vote shares CON 35 LAB 35 LD 8 GRN 8 UKIP 12 This represents a 5.7% CON to LAB swing in England since 2010 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2015 Last month TSE suggested Ipsos-Mori and ICM phone polls were outliers, in this instance what we’re seeing is a return what the polls have…

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Lunchtime round-up with Marf on the pensioners bonds and the coalition struggling in the “blame for the cuts” tracker

Lunchtime round-up with Marf on the pensioners bonds and the coalition struggling in the “blame for the cuts” tracker

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Politicalbetting's Marf on Osborne's new pensioner bonds pic.twitter.com/low9iePcEt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2015 Pensioners, as we all know, are most likely to be on the electoral register and most likely to vote. They are also the segment of the population most likely to have savings on which, in the era of ultra low interest rates, they are receiving a pittance. Also the polling suggests that they are more likely to be CON supporters than other age segments. This…

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Our big parties need to learn to behave like small ones

Our big parties need to learn to behave like small ones

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Henry G Manson on the first phase of Campaign ’15 The Tories say voting UKIP would let Labour in. Labour say voting the SNP or Greens would only help the Tories. The SNP and the Greens both say Labour are the same as the Tories. The endless and numbing permutations go on and on and on with deceitful Lib Dem bar charts thrown in for fun. The early skirmishes of the general election have heavily featured on tactical considerations as…

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Al Murray’s South Thanet bid looks like an effort to stop Nigel Farage

Al Murray’s South Thanet bid looks like an effort to stop Nigel Farage

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@LordAshcroft polling from Thanet S where Al Murray plans to stand at GE15 He could have huge impact pic.twitter.com/FBmz8yhp7Y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2015 What’ll this do the the UKIP leader’s bid to become an MP? Al Murray, the public school educated Oxford graduate, who has risen to fame as the Pub Landlord, launched his bid to take on Nigel Farage in Thanet South this afternoon. Given his popularity and the fact that he’s chosen Thanet South it does look…

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Cameron’s big mistake was not killing off the debates a year ago

Cameron’s big mistake was not killing off the debates a year ago

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As it is he either agrees or continues to be labelled “chicken” As an incumbent PM facing an opposition leader with as poor personal ratings as Ed Miliband’s it has been apparent for a long time that the best outcome for DC would be for no debates to take place. Why give Ed a platform that puts him equal with Dave? This is the more so now that Ofcom has deemed UKIP to be a major party and the threat…

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