As it is he either agrees or continues to be labelled “chicken” As an incumbent PM facing an opposition leader with as poor personal ratings as Ed Miliband’s it has been apparent for a long time that the best outcome for DC would be for no debates to take place. Why give Ed a platform that puts him equal with Dave? This is the more so now that Ofcom has deemed UKIP to be a major party and the threat…
Politicalbetting's Marf on the debate over the NHS pic.twitter.com/OJg40M2kU9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2015 LAB and EdM seen to be more concerned How important do you think the NHS is to the parties and leaders? pic.twitter.com/BCwUh9zN3g — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) January 14, 2015 Burnham’s comments resonating much more than Hunt’s How Andy Burnham comments on NHS resonating far more with voters than those of Health Sec Hunt @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/VgybOGbW85 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2015 Where…
Tonight’s cartoon from Politicalbetting's Marf pic.twitter.com/aT5151Lvc2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015
Bu 55% to 23% voters tell ComRes that they think Cameron is being cowardly by trying to avoid the TV debates pic.twitter.com/TadhiK6HJs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 But what we don’t know is how salient an issue this is I am always a bit wary about polling like that featured above. Yes Mr. Cameron’s approach draws some negatives but does it actually matter? Isn’t the leaders’ debate issue just a concern that gets those within the “bubble” excited…
Tories up 4 & back at the high point on SportingIndex commons seat market. Now just 2 behind LAB pic.twitter.com/Y9ULu3648A — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 LAB majority on the Betfair exchange slumps to lowest level yet based on last trades. LAB 11.9% chance. CON 16.7% chance. NOM 71.5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 As a general rule CON backers most influenced by good news After yesterday’s Lord Ashcroft CON 6% lead poll and the Populus 5%…
The campaign to persuade Elizabeth Warren to run for President http://t.co/bXc3sWuggn pic.twitter.com/xERcLp7jlC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015 Could she beat Hillary for Democratic party nomination Last night I had an 8/1 bet on Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, to be the Democratic party nominee in next year’s White House race. She’s now second favourite in the betting and looks like she’d be a serious challenger if she decided to go for it. Until now the widespread assumption has been…
New ComRes poll for ITV finds that the NHS now the main concern of voters – jumping above immigration pic.twitter.com/OfDVtXI3JA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 12, 2015 Where will it be on May 7th – that’s what matters
Lord Ashcroft phone poll, just out, has the Tories 6% ahead I can’t recall a day when two polls came out showing a diametrically picture of how the next general election is looking. The main figures are in the chart. CON is 32% with Populus and 34% with Lord Ashcroft while Populus makes it 37% to LAB with Lord Ashcroft on 28%. Confused? So am I. The fieldwork for both polls took place during exactly the same time period –…