EdM on the Andrew Marr show pic.twitter.com/gArzupDgLA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The big unknown of this campaign & maybe we won’t find out till May 8th It is said that a key strategy of the Tories in the coming months will be to constantly remind voters that Ed Miliband is LAB leader and that if the party did win the election then he could end up as PM. I am sure that that is the right approach….
A CON majority rated as being just a tad more likely than a LAB one on Betfair pic.twitter.com/PrVP160EJm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 But LAB to win most seats still marginal favourite On Betfair's "most seats" market LAB has very narrow lead over CON pic.twitter.com/7sAm9yGcpY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The big conclusion is that it’s going to be very tight
Pictures from Paris being screened around the world pic.twitter.com/0aHSZq4h8R — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015
Ex-Cameron aide: Tories will lose election | Public Affairs News http://t.co/SKeYQvS2B7. See pic.twitter.com/ReAVs6BtZN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The grassroots collapse that threatens the Tories In the article David Cameron’s former chief of Staff, Alex Deane, makes this observation and predictions about the general election: “”The basic scenario in this Parliament has been clear for a while and remains unchanged in 2015: UKIP up, dividing the right, Lib Dems down, uniting the left. This becomes stronger as the…
Politicalbetting's cartoonist, Marf, on the latest from France pic.twitter.com/yRwcazf2jk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 10, 2015
I love this pic from the 2010 debates (via @JohnRentoul ) pic.twitter.com/ZvjCYnhhOB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2015 The PM has just painted a huge target on his own back The Green Party is not the fourth party of UK politics and never has been so why is it treated by media and opponents alike as if it is? For most of the Greens’ history, the fourth party has been either the SNP or the dominant Unionist party in N…
Farage and Carswell pic.twitter.com/LN9BCE7d18 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 9, 2015 The chances of the purples fading must now be lower One of the features of general elections in recent times is that the Lib Dems always seem to get a boost during the campaign. Thus a 4-5% increase in their final share at the election compared with pre-formal campaign polls has almost been the norm. What has driven this is the extra attention they get from the broadcast media…
Lifting the ban on fox-hunting – how supporters of the main parties divide pic.twitter.com/YTq1r57Eff — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 9, 2015 YouGov finds that the Right-Left divide over fox-hunting continues With the Tories reported to planning legalise fox-hunting if they are returned with a majority YouGov has had a look at the issue and finds support for current ban, But as the chart shows there’s a sharp right-left split on the issue with Tory voters opposing the ban the LAB…