Just over half will stick with Farage’s party
The overnight TNS-BMRB poll had some data that I’d not seen before – linking what those sampled said they did in the Euros last May with their current GE15 voting intention. In that election, of course, UKIP ended up with the most votes and most MEPs.
The latest polling is moderately helpful to the Tories given that just over a fifth say they’ll be backing the blue team in the general election.
These numbers are broadly in line with the following analysis by the House of Commons research based on the various waves of BES polling that there were last year.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2015
My reading, based on the Lord Ashcroft marginals polling, is that in the key marginals that the Tories are trying to defend or win that there will be more Euro2014 UKIP switchers to CON.
One thing to note is that turnout in the general election will be considerably higher than the turnout last May.