Back at GE2010 polls from the second half of Feb 2010 proved to be pretty good pointers to the result

Back at GE2010 polls from the second half of Feb 2010 proved to be pretty good pointers to the result

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Will the same be repeated this May? With so many polls coming out as we get closer to the big day I thought it might be useful to check back at the regular pollsters from the last election to see how their surveys from the second half of February compared with the actual result. The YouGov daily poll started at this time and for that I have taken and average. I have only included the established pollsters from then which…

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Local By-Election Preview : February 12th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : February 12th 2015

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Bar Hill on Cambridgeshire (Con Defence) Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 32, Liberal Democrats 14, United Kingdom Independence Party 12, Labour 7, Independents 4 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservatives 1,175 (45%), United Kingdom Independence Party 570 (22%), Labour 352 (14%), Green 242 (9%), Liberal Democrat 219 (8%), Monster Raving Loony 28 (1%) Candidates duly nominated: Martin Hale (UKIP), Lynda Harford (Con), Claudia Roland (Green), Alex Smith (Lab),…

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Marf on tax planning

Marf on tax planning

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http://t.co/O5nX7RL9vb's Marf gives her take on tax planning. pic.twitter.com/KsiS1JJecK — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 12, 2015 If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here.

UKIP drop into single figures, LDs 6% as LAB move to 36% in this month’s Ipsos-MORI poll

UKIP drop into single figures, LDs 6% as LAB move to 36% in this month’s Ipsos-MORI poll

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LAB @IpsosMORI lead 3% amongst all those giving voting intention. See chart pic.twitter.com/2AGeX5l9sz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12, 2015 Feb @IpsosMORI poll Farage biggest loser on month in the satisfaction ratings pic.twitter.com/bnsz3oMq8e — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12, 2015 LAB 36% share with @IpsosMORI is the highest the party has seen since April last year. In both Nov & Dec 2014 the firm had CON 3% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12, 2015 Unlike other pollsters @IpsosMORI headline…

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Ahead of what Ipsos-MORI is describing as a “corker” of a poll NOM moves to its tightest level ever on the Betfair Exchange

Ahead of what Ipsos-MORI is describing as a “corker” of a poll NOM moves to its tightest level ever on the Betfair Exchange

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No overall majority on the Betfair exchange moves to its tightest yet overnight rating at about an 81% pic.twitter.com/ja1zMp8hX1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12, 2015 The Ipsos-MORI poll, for the Evening Standard, usually comes out between 1200 and 1400. As to the betting moves it is very hard to argue against. The pathways to both Tory and Labour overall majorities look very difficult based on what we know at the moment. But remember what Harold Macmillan used to describe…

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Tonight from Marf

Tonight from Marf

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Politicalbetting's Marf pic.twitter.com/77jftpUwgh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2015 After yesterday's YouGov 2% LAB lead tonight's has CON 32 LAB 33 LD 7 UKIP 15 GRN 7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2015

Two useful guides from Professor John Curtice on linking vote shares to seats

Two useful guides from Professor John Curtice on linking vote shares to seats

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From John Curtice report for Electoral Reform Soc – the vote share targets for LAB & CON majorities pic.twitter.com/pXrz2cFwAj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 9, 2015 The John Curtice guide to what an SNP lead on votes in Scotland means in terms of LAB & SNP seats. pic.twitter.com/1TVrQ0eStM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2015 Both of these were in report produced by Professor Curtice for the Electoral Reform Society The big thing with the Tories is the LD battleground….

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So far the evidence that there’ll be a lot of tactical voting isn’t great but ground campaigning has yet to build up

So far the evidence that there’ll be a lot of tactical voting isn’t great but ground campaigning has yet to build up

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Opinium chart on tactical voting showing how Tory backers least likely to be making negative choce pic.twitter.com/Gz810cj5nA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2015 It’s a term that we hear all the time. Because we have first past the post the only way that those not supporting the two parties perceived to be on top locally can use their vote effectively is by switching to one that is in contention in order to stop another party. The theory is simple…

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