Labour are currently the largest recipients of tactical voting

Labour are currently the largest recipients of tactical voting

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Labour are currently the largest recipient of tactical voting via @IpsosMORI pic.twitter.com/PcWPbxY7El — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 15, 2015 As part of this month’s Ipsos-Mori political monitor found that 22% of Lab voters saying they do so to keep another party out, rather than because the party represents their views. For the Tories the figure is 10%, for UKIP it is 9%and the Liberal Democrat’s it is 7%. Ipsos-More note “In previous years, the Liberal Democrats were most likely to say they…

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The Next Tory Leader betting

The Next Tory Leader betting

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Given the current polling and lack of time and opportunities for the polling to change, it is likely Cameron and the Tories in a little under three months time will be out of Downing Street, which in all likelihood means there will be a vacancy at the top of the Tory party. The current favourite is Boris Johnson, in past Tory leadership elections it has been profitable to lay the favourite. Another reason for laying Boris will be if the…

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UPDATED: Opinium, ComRes and YoGov all have LAB retaining its leads

UPDATED: Opinium, ComRes and YoGov all have LAB retaining its leads

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The latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has CON 32 LAB 35 LD 7 UKIP 15 GRN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2015 LAB retains 2% lead in latest Opinium poll for the Observer LAB 35+1 CON 33+1 LD 8+1 UKIP 14-1 GRN 6-2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2015 ComRes IoS./S Mirror poll also has LAB 2 ahead CON 32% -1 LAB  34%= LD  7% = UKIP 16% -2 GRN  4% +1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2015 UKIP's share seems to have declined in most recent…

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Henry G Manson says that in past fortnight we’ve seen a different EdM with an effective gameplan

Henry G Manson says that in past fortnight we’ve seen a different EdM with an effective gameplan

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@Ed_Miliband kicks off by going with the tax avoidance issue pic.twitter.com/b7p8pp0pNC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2015 Why he’s becoming like tennis player Lleyton Hewitt at his prime It’s easy to look at British politics as though it were boxing. Journalists will often speak of whether there were any ‘knock out blows’ in Prime Minister’s. Instead I look at the it through the prism of sport I love, which PB old hands know is tennis. Of course there are…

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At this stage in 2010 bullish punters pushed the betting to a CON majority of 36 completely in defiance of the polling

At this stage in 2010 bullish punters pushed the betting to a CON majority of 36 completely in defiance of the polling

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3 months before 2010 election betting markets predicted Con maj 36 http://t.co/82hyWOedHW pic.twitter.com/wJNzaTFY06 Thx @MikeSmithsonPB — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) February 13, 2015 Are CON punters being grossly optimistic yet again? Last night John Rentoul asked me what had happened in the betting at this stage of the 2010 campaign and I dug up the above – an index that I created and reported regularly on here based on the spread betting and Betfair line prices. At this stage in the…

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Local By-Election Results: February 12th 2015

Local By-Election Results: February 12th 2015

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Bar Hill on Cambridgeshire (Con Defence) Lynda Harford (Con) 787 (46% +1%) Martin Hale (UKIP) 251 (15% -7%) Fiona Whelan (Lib Dem) 238 (14% +6%) Alex Smith (Lab) 235 (14% unchanged) Claudia Roland (Green) 200 (12% +3%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 536 (31%) on a swing of 4% from UKIP to Con Oswestry East on Shropshire (Con Defence) John Price (Con) 629 (47% +3%) Claire Norris (Lab) 247 (19% -4%) Duncan Kerr (Green) 231 (17% no candidate in…

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CON to LAB swing in 40 key marginals moves to 4.5% according to new ComRes ITV poll

CON to LAB swing in 40 key marginals moves to 4.5% according to new ComRes ITV poll

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Tonight's ComRes ITV News poll of 40 key marginal represents CON to LAB swing of 4.5% pic.twitter.com/98KhgExcMP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015 New ComRes poll of 40 most marg Lab/Con seats: Con 31% (NC), Lab 40% (+1), LD 8% (+1), UKIP 15% (-3), Green 5% (+1). In 2010, Con/Lab on 37% — Stephen Tall (@stephentall) February 13, 2015 Just 12% tell ComRes ITV marginals poll that the key factor in voting choice is which party leader will make…

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LAB might be edging up in all recent polls – but punters staying solidly with CON taking most seats

LAB might be edging up in all recent polls – but punters staying solidly with CON taking most seats

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Latest betting Goodish polling news for LAB not affecting the betting. Seat spreads from @SportingIndexhttp://bit.ly/1DHtmVS pic.twitter.com/1WJc51glb3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015 Latest Betfair exchange prices have LAB seats a 43% chance. Value bet given polls. pic.twitter.com/ePz5UMaqWR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015 Latest polls Populus online has LAB 34 CON 31 LD 9 UKIP 14 GRN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015 LAB After yesterday's YouGov with a 1% lead tonight's has CON 31 LAB 34 LD 7 UKIP 15 GRN 7 — Mike…

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