Tonight's ComRes ITV News poll of 40 key marginal represents CON to LAB swing of 4.5% pic.twitter.com/98KhgExcMP

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015

New ComRes poll of 40 most marg Lab/Con seats: Con 31% (NC), Lab 40% (+1), LD 8% (+1), UKIP 15% (-3), Green 5% (+1). In 2010, Con/Lab on 37%

— Stephen Tall (@stephentall) February 13, 2015

Just 12% tell ComRes ITV marginals poll that the key factor in voting choice is which party leader will make best PM pic.twitter.com/MsHu6OaUXl

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015

In all marginals polling the figure you need to look for is what the vote split was in the seats polled at the last general election. In this case it was 37% CON 37% LAB. So CON down 6 to 31 and LAB up 3 to 40 equates to a 4.5% CON to LAB swing.

The slight uplift since November is all within the standard margin of error though EdM’s team will be delighted with a 4.5% swing – greater than that we have been seeing with standard polling.

I’m a bit sceptical about the relative lack of importance the party leaders is to voter choice. The figure seems surprising though there is a tendency to emphasise policies rather than party.

Overall another goodish poll for LAB and a poor one for UKIP.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB