LAB might be edging up in all recent polls – but punters staying solidly with CON taking most seats

LAB might be edging up in all recent polls – but punters staying solidly with CON taking most seats

Latest betting

Latest polls

When an outcome is like toss a coin the value bet is the one with longest odds

There seems to be some pretty heavy money about on the Tories in the general election betting resulting in the blues being favourite to win most seats.

Based on what we know and reinforced by recent polls I wouldn’t recommend blue wagers at these prices. It might be that there’s a considerable swing back but there is little to support it at the moment. As I wrote in my Betfair Predicts column yesterday:

“..The Conservative problem, something that is not getting highlighted at all at the moment in remains that the electoral system stills works very much against it. Quite simply the blues needs a bigger vote share than Labour in order to secure most seats or win a majority. This has been ameliorated a bit by Labour’s Scottish difficulties but it has not solved it.

Just look at England alone where 532 of the 650 Westminster seats are located. Back at the 2005 General Election the Tories “won England” on votes but Labour came home with a colossal 92 more seats giving the party a comfortable working majority. In 2010 the Tories had a 90+ seat lead over Labour in England but to do so need a lead on votes of 11.4%.

Theoretically any Conservative lead in England less than 11.4% would see Cameron’s party losing seats to Miliband’s.

The reasons for that imbalance are still there. The average size of the electorates in Labour constituencies is smaller and there are much lower turnout levels in its heartland seats compared to the Tories. On top of that the blue team is more vulnerable to tactical voting against the party. Those opposed to the blues have been more ready to switch parties to kick the Tories than vice versa. All on this contributes to a lower seats:votes ratio for Labour than the Conservatives…”

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

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