Two useful guides from Professor John Curtice on linking vote shares to seats
From John Curtice report for Electoral Reform Soc – the vote share targets for LAB & CON majorities pic.twitter.com/pXrz2cFwAj
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 9, 2015
The John Curtice guide to what an SNP lead on votes in Scotland means in terms of LAB & SNP seats. pic.twitter.com/1TVrQ0eStM
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2015
Both of these were in report produced by Professor Curtice for the Electoral Reform Society
The big thing with the Tories is the LD battleground. The weaker the yellows are then the more seats on a national swing basis that the blues should pick up. This is a bit at odds with the Ashcroft marginals polling which has been showing that the LDs have been doing a fair bit better in the constituencies they hold compared with the country as a whole. The last two waves have had the LD to CON swing at 2%.
A 4% LAB lead for an overall majority seems low given what has happened in Scotland. A 7% or 10% lead for the Tories appears to be a massive challenge.
Mike Smithson
For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble
For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB