David Herdson looks at what might shift the polls in the 53 days that remain
How can we best predict the big campaign issues? Polls are snapshots, not predictions. It’s a common and accurate assertion and is one part in the explanation as to why the betting markets don’t match up with current polling. At the moment, the Conservatives are generally around 1/2 to win most seats at the election, while Labour are best priced at 15/8, despite current polling being neck-and-neck, which would translate to a comfortable Labour lead in seats were it to…