Will the Tory recovery have changed the picture? The big polling news in the past hour has been a Tweet from Lord Ashcroft saying that next week he’s publishing a new round of marginals poll of the seats he polled first nearly a year ago. These are the ones with the tightest majorities and the most vulnerable. I’ve shown a group in the chart above which I think might be included. If CON is on the up and LAB down…
Will there be a 4th consecutive CON YouGov lead tonight? For latest on the Sporting Index spreads price see the panel above the comments. This is updated in real time 24/7. Clearly the run of bad polls for Labour is taking its toll and adding to Tory confidence. We are now on three consecutive Tory leads. If we get to four then it will be the best for the blue team since the 2012 budget. Coming up tomorrow is the…
Reminder: PB gathering March 17th at 7pm The next PB get-together will take place on Tuesday March 17th from 7pm at the Shooting Star in Middlesex Street. As the map below shows this is just round the corner from our normal venue, Dirty Dicks. We are hoping that this will be less crowded and noisy than the pre-Christmas bash. Thanks to Fat Steve for finding the new venue. There are also plans for overnight May 7/8 – details soon.
Why the LDs are releasing some of their private polling Yesterday I received the full media briefing on the controversial private LD polling which has attracted a lot of attention. I was able to ask about any seat and have a pretty good picture of how things are looking. The reason for the part disclosure is to make a very simple point that naming the candidates can make a huge difference – as seen in the one poll that was…
Spectator And that’s what the Pub Landlord really wants One of the side-shows of May 7th is the Pub Landlord’s campaign in South Thanet, where Farage is seeking to win. It’s a tough three way marginal but the latest from Survation had him with a comfortable lead. All of this makes his reaction to the Election Commission’s ruling on Al Murray and his FUKP party quite surprising and over the top. What Farage need to do is go along with…
Marf on Royal Wedding day April 2011 To govern is to choose It is fast becoming received wisdom that the general election in May will produce an inconclusive result, and all the parties are setting out their stalls in advance, marking their red lines. The SNP say they won’t prop up the Conservatives, the Labour party are likely to rule out a deal with the SNP, the Lib Dems may insist on a full coalition or no deal at all…
Tories move to a 64% chance of winning most seats on Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/cvOGXUnbdz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2015 All published polls since start of month pic.twitter.com/GAhfqPNumI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2015 Only fly in the ointment for the blues – Populus Those who were concluding that Dave and the blue team would not be damaged by the debates issue now have an answer. With both Ashcroft and latest showing 4% leads the strong Tory start…
Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (=), Con 32 (+1), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-1), GRN 6 (+1), — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2015 Trend chart with @LordAshcroft 's latest poll pic.twitter.com/RjRI0Vo4gW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2015 Big driver of CON position in latest Ashcroft poll is higher certainty to vote. Before turnout filter LAB & CON almost level pegging — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2015 Only 2 of @LordAscroft polls this year have had LAB…