PB’s LAB insider, Henry G Manson, gives his assessment of Cameron’s approach to the debates saga

PB’s LAB insider, Henry G Manson, gives his assessment of Cameron’s approach to the debates saga

Comments 0 Comment

It’d tricky for Dave coming under scrutiny from 6 different sides David Cameron is a good media performer and remains his party’s biggest asset. There has been a lot of focus on the suggestion that despite this it’d be better for his party if he avoids the televised debates because of the platform it will give Ed Miliband. I know the theory, but this does not stack up for me and seem that convincing. What else could Conservative strategists be…

Read More Read More

How the polls performed the last time a charismatic, Eton-educated, incumbent stood in a major election

How the polls performed the last time a charismatic, Eton-educated, incumbent stood in a major election

Comments 0 Comment

Boris was net 30 points ahead of Ken in the leader ratings This is the first in a short series of posts looking at polling that highlights areas that could cause problems on May 7th. This one concerns the strength of the Labour brand when everything seemed lost. Everybody knows that Boris pulled off a spectacular victory in the May 2012 London Mayoral Election when things were going badly for his party nationally. Yet what has been largely forgotten is…

Read More Read More

The polling finds David Cameron would get the blame were the debates not to take place

The polling finds David Cameron would get the blame were the debates not to take place

Comments 0 Comment

But do the public understand Cameron’s strategy and tactics over the debates? The polling by YouGov on the debates doesn’t make for good reading for David Cameron, such as 50% think David Cameron is scared to debate other party leaders. whilst 38% mostly blame Cameron for the stalemate over the debates, whilst 13% mostly blame the broadcasters, and below, David Cameron doesn’t come off as sincere in regards to the debates. Findings by @YouGov on the debates https://t.co/ywStD45I7b pic.twitter.com/A6iuBX1f4z — TSE…

Read More Read More

Norman Lamb, my long-term bet for Clegg’s replacement, moves a step closer to being a leadership contender

Norman Lamb, my long-term bet for Clegg’s replacement, moves a step closer to being a leadership contender

Comments 0 Comment

Norman Lamb could be the "stop Farron" candidate if there's an early LD leadership fight http://t.co/nnKi8Y4nBh pic.twitter.com/vsRgO7hIWw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2015 The Indy on Sunday is reporting this morning that a number of the party’s peers and MPs have approached him about being a candidate should there be a post May 7th leadership contest. It reports: Speaking before the Lib Dem spring conference in Liverpool this week, Mr Lamb admitted he is thinking about running. ‘When people raise…

Read More Read More

The Saturday night polls have the battle very tight

The Saturday night polls have the battle very tight

Comments 0 Comment

Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times Con 34 Lab 33 LD 8 UKIP 15 Greens 5 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 7, 2015 Opinium/Observer: #deadheat Lab 34% (-1), Con 34% (n/c), LibDem 8% (+2), UKIP 14% (n/c), Greens 7% (+1) http://t.co/LxGJVdrwp9 — Opinium Research (@OpiniumResearch) March 7, 2015 ENGLAND ONLY figures from Opinium/Observer poll CON 36 LAB 33 LD 8 UKIP 14 GRN 7 Represents a 4.2% CON to LAB swing in England since GE10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2015 My guess is that there won't…

Read More Read More

Guest slot contributor, Stodge, casts his eye on the battle for London

Guest slot contributor, Stodge, casts his eye on the battle for London

Comments 0 Comment

BBC Results 2010 Capital City “Blues” Dr Carl Sagan once said “you have to understand the past to know the present”. Looking at the election battleground that is Greater London and its 73 seats, that quote seems strangely apposite. In 2010, Labour narrowly “won” London in terms of votes but lost a net seven seats to the Conservatives. The swing against the then Government was lower in London than nationally and the latest YouGov poll shows Labour improving its position….

Read More Read More

Lord Ashcroft’s 160+ seat polls are already making it a very different election and could impact on results

Lord Ashcroft’s 160+ seat polls are already making it a very different election and could impact on results

Comments 0 Comment

For potential tactical voters they provide a guide what to do One of the many unique features of May 7th is the polling. We’ve never had so much and we’ve never seen so many studies of individual battlegrounds. Lord Ashcroft alone has produced more than 160 of them and there is hardly a key seat where we haven’t got any information. At GE2010, when there were perhaps half a dozen such polls, the Greens’ victory in Brighton Pavillion showed how…

Read More Read More

The debates stand off: This could have been the afternoon when DC won GE15 or lost it

The debates stand off: This could have been the afternoon when DC won GE15 or lost it

Comments 0 Comment

The debates stand off: This could have been the afternoon when DC won GE15 or lost it http://t.co/PjLT8xY85y pic.twitter.com/iJvgaBbXFP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2015 Problem for Cameron is that if he later decides to takes part in the debates it'll look weak because of his earlier stance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2015 So now we have it. Number 10 has made its final offer on the TV debates which has been rejected by the broadcasters who say…

Read More Read More