Why I’m betting on a turnout below 69%
On April 13th, just a month on from today, I am advised that the first postal voting packs will start going out and the following morning voting will start in GE15. There’s no changing your mind once you’ve popped your ballot envelope into the letter box. All the experience is that most postal voters return their completed forms within the first forty-eight hours.
The actual day that the postal mailings start is very much in the control of local authorities but April 13th is said to be the earliest. This means that for many voters the election could be over once they’ve popped their return envelopes into the post even though there maybe three and a half weeks of the campaign still to run.
Meanwhile there are signs that the turnout might not be as high as expected.
The respected election watcher and former MP, Rob Hayward, notes that ” In the period January to March 2010 average turnout at council by-elections was over 5% higher than it has been in Jan-March 2015. (28% v 23%). Could this indicate a general disenchantment with politicians and therefore be a precursor to a lower General Election turnout?”
The Sporting Index spread on turnout level is currently 69-69.6% which is up on the 65% of last time. Hayward might be right and I am betting that it will be below 69%.