It’s all very tight but the Tories seem to be doing better with the phone pollsters LAB with the online ones

It’s all very tight but the Tories seem to be doing better with the phone pollsters LAB with the online ones

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Or do the Tories do best when the fieldwork is mostly at the weekend? At the moment this close to an election with the numbers so tight it’s interesting to divide the pollsters by methodology to see if there’s a pattern In the chart above showing the Tory lead over LAB there is a clear division between the phone pollsters and the online ones. The former are giving the edge every do slightly to the blues while the latter it…

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The big GE15 gamble is trying to work out what all the polling means in terms of seats

The big GE15 gamble is trying to work out what all the polling means in terms of seats

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And on that there is no clear cut picture There is a huge divide both between academic groups and others like Martin Baxter’s long-standing Electoral Calculus. Frankly I find it hard to work this one out and I guess that whatever happens it will be a big surprise on the night. My long term GE15 bet has been CON ahead on votes – LAB ahead on seats. Reminder the PB pre May 7th gathering tomorrow. The Shooting Star from 7pm

The Monday afternoon rolling polls thread

The Monday afternoon rolling polls thread

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CON lead down from 4 to 2 with latest Ashcroft phone poll See details & trends from today's Ashcroft national poll pic.twitter.com/nTp4tRYByg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 16, 2015 CON lead down from 4 to 1 in the March ICM Guardian poll CON lead moves from 4 to 1 in latest ICM Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/BtRz62KD9e — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 16, 2015 So both the pollsters that had the biggest CON leads – ICM & Ashcroft with 4% – now…

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Take the 4-1 on the former Lord Mayor of London gaining Basildon South for UKIP

Take the 4-1 on the former Lord Mayor of London gaining Basildon South for UKIP

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Don’t be put off by the Ashcroft 6% CON lead One of the best UKIP constituency bets at the moment is the 4/1 that’s available from several bookies on UKIP winning South Basildon and East Thurrock. The candidate is Ian Luder, CBE, former Lord Mayor of London, ex-president of the Institute of Taxation, and advisor to government at the highest level. He’s also had a long record in local government with LAB and is a highly accomplished on the ground…

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Fewer voters have made up their mind on how to vote than in the past

Fewer voters have made up their mind on how to vote than in the past

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Whilst most voters think the debates will influence the way the vote Ipsos Mori have done some polling which asks how many voters have made up their mind on how to vote, and what will influence the way they will vote. The fieldwork for the polling was early to mid February, so well before the recent contretemps over the debates. So David Cameron’s non appearance in the debates could fundamentally damage the Tories as we can see from the above…

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Nigel Farage’s offer to support a minority Conservative Government is a 2015 referendum

Nigel Farage’s offer to support a minority Conservative Government is a 2015 referendum

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As part of Nigel Farage’s book being serialised in the Telegraph, The UK Independence Party leader says that he is willing to make a deal with the Tories on the condition that they hold an EU referendum before Christmas. The detailed plans for a hung parliament set out that Ukip and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party would work together to support the Conservatives on a vote by vote basis. Ukip – forecast to gain up to six seats in the…

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Opinium and ComRes have LAB with 2% leads and both have Ed closing the gap on Dave in their leader ratings

Opinium and ComRes have LAB with 2% leads and both have Ed closing the gap on Dave in their leader ratings

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YouGov Sunday Times poll has CON & LAB level pegging CON loses its YouGov lead. Now level pegging CON 34% LAB 34% LD 7% UKIP 14% GRN 5%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2015 LAB retains 2pt lead with ComRes online for Indy on Sunday/S Mirror Con 33% (+1) Lab 35% (+1) LD 7% (NC) UKIP 16% (NC) Greens4% (NC) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2015 Today's changes in latest Opinium Observer poll CON 33-1 LAB 35 +1 LIB 7 -1 UKIP 14= GRN 7= Changes within margin of error — Mike…

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It’s inevitable under FPTP that many will vote AGAINST a party not FOR a likely loser

It’s inevitable under FPTP that many will vote AGAINST a party not FOR a likely loser

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(Pic Via @SNPout) We are likely to see more of this for other types of seats. Tactical voting guides pic.twitter.com/060CcTVFau — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2015 Voting smart might be the new clarion call Charts like the one above, that’s going the rounds on social media, looks set to play a big part at GE15. Scotland clearly is a special situation and you can understand why those that voted NO should be worried about the SNP picking up 40+…

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