Or do the Tories do best when the fieldwork is mostly at the weekend?
At the moment this close to an election with the numbers so tight it’s interesting to divide the pollsters by methodology to see if there’s a pattern
In the chart above showing the Tory lead over LAB there is a clear division between the phone pollsters and the online ones. The former are giving the edge every do slightly to the blues while the latter it is mostly to LAB.
But there’s another division that might be relevant – the days when when the fieldwork is carried out. With all the pollsters showing CON leads the fieldwork was predominantly at the weekends while those with LAB leads it it was during the week.
Thus Ipsos-MORI, the only phone survey to have LAB ahead, polls from Sunday to Wednesday.
Maybe we are over analysing for all the pollsters are within such a very narrow range.
One message I’m getting from the three main parties is that those close to what is happening on the ground say that there is a much higher level of uncertainty than before. This is all anecdotal but far fewer people on the doorstep are ready to give firm views.
Maybe this election will surprise and go down like 1992, as a polling disaster. That year all the polls pointed to a hung parliament but John Major’s Tories won a clear cut victory.
The betting markets remain unequivocal. The money is solidly on the Tories winning most seats.