CON maintain their 14 seat lead on the main Commons seats spread market

CON maintain their 14 seat lead on the main Commons seats spread market

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CON still 14 seats ahead on the @SportingIndex http://t.co/ebrNykWXCd Commons seats spread market pic.twitter.com/XdqhEyLBQA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 19, 2015 Meanwhile SPIN has now introduced a range of seat markets which take into account the second placed party. Basically you have a spread from 0 to 25 with the top figure for the winner and 10 for the second place. This is one of the few places where you can be bet on second places. I’ll be doing a…

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The GE2015 prospects for Clegg, Salmond, and Farage are all dependent on tactical voting either for or against

The GE2015 prospects for Clegg, Salmond, and Farage are all dependent on tactical voting either for or against

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So what combination will fail to be elected on May 7th? One of those attending the PB party on Tuesday, a long standing lurker who has never posted, told me that one of his favourite bets at the moment was the then 50/1 he’d got that Farage, Salmond and Clegg would all fail to be elected at the election. This was pleasing to me personally because the market on which combination of the three would make it was one I’d…

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Some pics from last night’s gathering

Some pics from last night’s gathering

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Fat Steve & MikeK Sunil & Stodge Richard Nabavi & Antifrank Maybe because it was mid-week in a new venue but last night’s PB London Gathering didn’t attract the numbers that we have got used to. Still about 20 made the trip to a congenial pub close to Liverpool Street station for what turned out to be a really good evening. Clearly the the budget and the general election were very much in mind and, as you’d expect, everyone had…

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So was it, as was being predicted, the game-changer?

So was it, as was being predicted, the game-changer?

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Osbo kicks off pic.twitter.com/RZCeCEFwNp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 18, 2015 Wait a few days before making a judgement The one thing we’ve learned from previous budgets, both LAB & CON, is that early judgements are not usually the right ones. Remember the initial polling on the March 2012 omni-shambles was fairly positive. What the budget does for all parties is to shape the way the economic debate will progress in this final period. Whatever I guess that this was…

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The last budget of the 2010-2015 parliament

The last budget of the 2010-2015 parliament

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pic.twitter.com/69rnNCnVOX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 18, 2015 YouGov (What voters think of possible #Budget2015 measures): http://t.co/WkTOS2qZcj pic.twitter.com/W80CazwfnC — NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 18, 2015 The pre-budget @SportingIndex commons seats spreads http://t.co/E76CImc6ZI. CON 12 seats ahead pic.twitter.com/mItZLFXgp6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 18, 2015

2010 LDs are nearly twice as likely to switch to LAB in the marginals as they are in Ashcroft’s national polls

2010 LDs are nearly twice as likely to switch to LAB in the marginals as they are in Ashcroft’s national polls

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This is the main driver of the bigger CON to LAB swing in the marginals I was on a train heading to London to speak at a conference when Lord Ashcroft’s latest CON-LAB battleground polling was published yesterday and have only now got round to looking at the detail. The most striking feature and a big driver of Labour’s strength in the seats polled is how well the party is doing in attracting and retaining 2010 LD to LAB switchers….

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TNS poll has the Tories ahead whilst there appears to be progress on the debates

TNS poll has the Tories ahead whilst there appears to be progress on the debates

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Latest @TNS_UK poll out Con 33 (+5) Lab 32 (-3) LD 7 (+1) UKIP 17 (-1) Greens 4 (-3) http://t.co/6OZfbbWkwQ — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 17, 2015 It appears as though TNS big move from to CON one might be partly due to methodology change. No mention now weighting back to 2014 Euros — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 17, 2015   Meanwhile on the debates, there has been progress or has there? Looks like there is progress on the leaders' debates http://t.co/qtAs0UpXJr pic.twitter.com/rX544YhirR —…

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Latest Lord Ashcroft marginals polling brings bad news for the Tories

Latest Lord Ashcroft marginals polling brings bad news for the Tories

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The latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out, and will bring bring great cheer to Labour and much disappointment to the Tories, who would have hoped the national polling trends would feed into the marginals. Lord Ashcroft says My findings this time suggest the better national news for the Conservatives is not spread evenly across the battleground. In only one of the seats, Worcester, has a Labour lead turned into a Tory one. In Croydon Central, the Labour…

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