Given the polling before the budget, the Tories might feel disappointed that the budget didn’t get more of a thumbs up from the electorate, there’s probably only one or two game changers left for the Tories, one of them is the debates, but according to reports, Ed has been preparing for a while, Dave has not. The full YouGov data tables are available here. TSE
The first event is four days away. Yesterday it was confirmed that we would have the debates and the format of said debates, they are as follows 26th March: Live question and answer programme on Channel 4 and Sky News featuring David Cameron and Ed Miliband, presented by Jeremy Paxman and Kay Burley 2nd April: Debate with the following party leaders David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband, Nigel Farage, Natalie Bennett, Nicola Sturgeon and Leanne Wood on ITV, moderated by Julie Etchingham…
LAB 2% ahead in latest YouGov poll for S Times — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2015 It’s no change with Survation for Mail on Sunday CON 30%+1 LAB 34%+1 LD 10%= UKIP 17%-2 SNP 4%= GRE 3%+1 A leaders’ question that’s unique: Agincourt with impending 600th anniversay Budget boost for Tories from Opinium/Observer poll Revised trend chart from Opinium pic.twitter.com/qh2DnGguHm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2015 @tobyhelm given design effects and margin of error i'd want to see…
Via @FPP2015 pic.twitter.com/iquqRshxVU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2015 Is this heart over head and if so which is which? This has been observed on PB before – the great divide between the individual constituency betting markets and the overall GE15 most seats. As can be seen above there’s now a 30-30 CON-LAB split on the national most seats betting but with the single seats LAB has small lead. My guess is that many constituency bets are placed on…
Can the SNP push Labour into third in 2016? It’s been said that the creation of New Labour was indirectly Margaret Thatcher’s greatest achievement; that her government remodelled the whole political landscape so much that many of her policies were continued and developed not just by her own Conservative successor as PM but by the Labour one following him too. As with all these things, there’s an overly-deterministic element to such reasoning (had John Smith lived, his leadership would have…
If Farage loses it is likely to be to this man not the Tories I understand from those close to UKIP that the well-funded and well-organised Farage campaign is becoming a tad concerned about the personable Will Scobie, the former Mayor of Margate and local councillor who is standing for Labour. They think that their man is still ahead and would win if the election was today but they now think that the main threat is now coming from their…
No sign of any progress for LAB in Scotland. Wiki list of polls pic.twitter.com/KgYHxAFBZr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2015 Because of the timing of counts the SNP could be ahead nationally at 2am on election night Overnight we had not one but two new Survation polls from Scotland. One was for Unison and the other was the regular survey for the Daily Record. The figures are in the Wiki table above and as can be seen, Labour remains…
Rhyl South West on Denbighshire (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 18, Independents 12, Conservatives 9, Plaid Cymru 7, Liberal Democrat 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 6) Result of ward at last election (2012): E denotes elected Labour: Pat Jones 797 E, Margaret McCarroll 647 E (70%) Independents: David Thomas 184, Glyn Williams 141 (16%) Conservatives: Harry Bennett 116, Billy Dawson 96 (10%) Liberal Democrats: David Dear 71 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: David Dear…