As Dave and Ed limber up for their final PMQs the last four polls have their parties level pegging

As Dave and Ed limber up for their final PMQs the last four polls have their parties level pegging

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In vote terms this couldn’t be tighter This is extraordinary. In all the time I’ve been covering polling I cannot recall a sequence like the one we are seeing this week. Four polls on the trot all reporting LAB and CON with the same vote shares. In terms of seats level-pegging suits Ed Miliband much more than it does David Cameron. The latter needs to see his party at least three up across a range of firms to be confident…

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ComRes phone poll sees Labour up 3 and UKIP down 3

ComRes phone poll sees Labour up 3 and UKIP down 3

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Another poll without a budget boost for the Tories As we’ve seen with some other pollsters, the big two are increasing their share of the vote, and UKIP falling back, as ComRes notes This represents the highest combined two-party vote share since September 2013. Individually, it is Labour’s highest share for six months and the Conservatives’ highest since November 2012. UKIP sees its vote share fall three points to 10%, the lowest in a ComRes phone poll in more than…

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With the campaign just about to start new BES polling suggests the the Tories will hang onto current levels of support…but

With the campaign just about to start new BES polling suggests the the Tories will hang onto current levels of support…but

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With the formal hostilities due to start on Thursday with the Channel 4/Sky News event the British Election Study has new polling that looks at the CON record on key policies. Though BES data shows the Tories are unlikely to lose voters during the campaign, their ability to build support could be limited by discontent with some areas of policy as we enter the election campaign. BES Co-Director Professor Jane Green from The University of Manchester told a Political Studies…

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Given Dave’s more popular than CON his announcement should theoretically help LAB

Given Dave’s more popular than CON his announcement should theoretically help LAB

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This from last week’s Ipsos-MORI poll What’ll Dave going at some point do to Lynton’s campaign plan? The latest Ipsos-MORI like leader like party ratings illustrate what is very common when it comes to public views of Cameron and his party: Invariably unlike the other party leaders he is a net asset securing better numbers than the Conservative party. In fact it is often quipped that what voters want is a LAB government led by David Cameron. So yesterday’s comments…

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Three years after being touted as Iron Lady 2.0 Liz Truss (33-1) is well placed to succeed Dave

Three years after being touted as Iron Lady 2.0 Liz Truss (33-1) is well placed to succeed Dave

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New Statesman July 2012 Might the comprehensive school girl from Leeds make it to the top? Cameron’s comments today about how long he might remain in the job have inevitably set off speculation about who will replace him. My long term bet, at 50/1, has been Liz Truss – who was one of the first of the class of GE10 to get a place in the cabinet. That was very important stepping stone. She’s now at 33/1. I’ve long taken…

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LAB draws level with CON in this week’s Ashcroft phone poll – so another pollster fails to record a budget bounce

LAB draws level with CON in this week’s Ashcroft phone poll – so another pollster fails to record a budget bounce

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This week's @LordAshcroft phone poll has CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2015 More detailed findings from @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/NrvOvXnXCv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2015 Before Xmas @LordAshcroft national poll had UKIP on 19%. Today just 12%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2015 @LordAshcroft poll ENGLAND ONLY shares CON 36 LAB 33 LD 8 UKIP 14 GN 6 So a 4.7% CON to LAB swing since GE10 on UNS = 50 LAB English gains…

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When computing most seats remember that every LAB gain from CON is worth double every LAB loss to the SNP

When computing most seats remember that every LAB gain from CON is worth double every LAB loss to the SNP

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It’s all a question of simple mathematics So if LAB lost all 41 of its Scottish seats it would need a further 21 gains from CON to offset them in the race to see which party has most MPs. Quite simply a LAB gain from CON increase the red total by and decreases the blue one. A loss to the SNP simply reduces the LAB overall number.

Yesterday’s interviews could prove to have been Alex Salmond’s Sheffield rally moment

Yesterday’s interviews could prove to have been Alex Salmond’s Sheffield rally moment

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Presumption , as Neil Kinnock will tell you, doesn’t go down well Those of us who are old enough remember the great Labour Sheffield rally before the 1992 General Election which came over in the media as a celebration of the victory that the party presumed was going to happen the following Thursday. It got widespread coverage and on the day John Major’s Tories totally defied all polling and were returned with a 7%+ more of the national votes and…

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