Well the interviews at least. You can watch the event live by clicking the youtube video below. I think Ed will be perceived to be the winner from tonight’s events, because the old maxim of success equals performance minus expectation, and the expecation for Ed is probably lower than it is for David Cameron, especially after David Cameron’s successful performance at PMQs yesterday. Will one or both of them have a surprise in store? I expect the other…
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie on Fife (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2012) : Labour 35, Scottish National Party 26, Liberal Democrats 10, Independents 4, Conservatives 3 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 5) Result of ward at last election (2012) : E denotes Elected Scottish National Party: Brown 910 E, Walker 349, Grant 941 E (42%) Labour: Craik 708 E, Campbell 1,424 E (41%) Independents: Robertson 147, Taylor 192 (7%) Scottish Pensioners Party: Dawson 271 (5%) Conservative:…
Whoever’s idea it was it was a mistake The basic fact is that you don’t launch moves like this unless you are going to win. I’ve never been a fan of Bercow but to use what amounted to procedural trickery flew in the face of the way the House operates. What’s clear is that he emerges stronger from this failed attempt. He’s now there as long as he wants. Surely the best thing would have been to have done this…
Lord Ashcroft polls This is one of UKIP’s best chances to take a LAB seat We’ve talked a lot about the CON-UKIP battleground but not about the LAB-UKIP one. Certainly the focus of the purples has been on the former but that doesn’t mean there are not opportunities with the latter. One place I’m hearing positive words about is the party’s campaign in Dudley North. I don’t know whether this is based on polling but I think that it might…
How the fight is on a knife edge Given the political and betting importance of which party wins most seats I’ve been looking at the maths to try to get a broad figure of what would be a CON victory on seats or a CON defeat. I’ve made several assumptions that clearly will impact on the equation. In broad terms the gap between the main parties as we start the formal campaign is 46 seats. So if there was no…
The Government has reportedly tabled a motion to stop John Bercow's re-election as Speaker of the House of Commons pic.twitter.com/tuugM1lqQH — Sky News (@SkyNews) March 25, 2015 Speaker election rule change done under resolution giving Govt total control of Commons agenda for final days of Parlm't – well planned coup — Mark D'Arcy (@DArcyTiP) March 25, 2015 …but if other parties conclude Cons can't be trusted not to pull strokes like this, cd be long nights ahead for Con MPs…
The trend in Survation's GE15 polling pic.twitter.com/BkpyCWmSgD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 New Survation poll for Daily Mirror has LAB 1 ahead LAB 33% -1 CON 32% +3 UKIP 18% -1 LD 8% -1 GRN 4% nc SNP 4% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 All polls, it seems, moving to level-pegging or thereabouts Two things stand out with the Survation-Mirror poll that’s just been released. Firstly the Tories have almost closed the gap although, it should be noted, the…
The 2nd & 3rrd favourites for the CON leadership sitting either side of Cameron at PMQs pic.twitter.com/e8LuRnRgXm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 A new Guardian/ICM poll, just issued, of those planning to watch tomorrow’s C4 leaders’programme finds voters split 38-38 on Cameron’s 3rd term announcement As you’d expect Tom Clarke in the Guardian reports a partisan split in the responses. His report notes that with CON supporters, 56% to 27% believe his move was right. Among LAB supporters,…