— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2015
Is this heart over head and if so which is which?
This has been observed on PB before – the great divide between the individual constituency betting markets and the overall GE15 most seats.
As can be seen above there’s now a 30-30 CON-LAB split on the national most seats betting but with the single seats LAB has small lead.
My guess is that many constituency bets are placed on the basis of local knowledge and observations while national bets are much more influenced by the overwhelming media narrative that’s emerged over the past month.
Clearly to win most seats requires victories in individual constituency battles and the Westminster village tends to view this more globally than those on the ground.
I believe that which party wins most seats remains the value bet at current levels. As each week goes by without a decisive turn in the polls to one party the election is a toss-up and on the toss of a coin the option that’s longer than evens is the value bet.
Given the known electoral bias to LAB then even with Scotland the Tories need consistent poll leads of 3%+ across a range of pollsters. Thatâ€™s not happened yet which is not to say that it won’t.