If Farage loses it is likely to be to this man not the Tories

I understand from those close to UKIP that the well-funded and well-organised Farage campaign is becoming a tad concerned about the personable Will Scobie, the former Mayor of Margate and local councillor who is standing for Labour.

They think that their man is still ahead and would win if the election was today but they now think that the main threat is now coming from their young Labour opponent not the former UKIP leader who is the Tory candidate. The latter’s background makes it much harder to distinguish himself from Farage

Unlike the by-elections in Clacton and Rochester where Labour ran what amounted to token campaigns Miliband’s party is putting up a serious fight in and Scobie, is attracting funds, activists and backing from those opposed to UKIP and Farage.

I’ve had a couple of bets on LAB at 10/1. My sense is that Farage will just do it but the Labour price is longer than my assessment of the party’s chance of winning.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

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