ICM 6% CON lead sets the election alight

ICM 6% CON lead sets the election alight

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ICM's CON 6% lead will bring LAB down to earth pic.twitter.com/DmRe2JAMmF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 Will the @LordAshcroft phone poll, due at 4pm support ICM? They broadly similar approaches and ICM often carries out the Lord A fieldwork — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 A good showing for the blues from Lord A, which, last had them 3% ahead, would totally change the election narrative. If not – an outlier — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13,…

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Looks like LAB is preparing for LD coalition negotiations

Looks like LAB is preparing for LD coalition negotiations

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RT @philipjcowley: "Labour will replace the House of Lords with a Senate of the Nations and Regions" (p.69). Good luck with that one… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 @PolProfSteve @MSmithsonPB But having been burnt on it last time, there is no way a mere aspiration will do this time for the LDs. — Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) April 13, 2015

NHS polling blow for the Cameron and Osborne following the £8bn extra funding pledge

NHS polling blow for the Cameron and Osborne following the £8bn extra funding pledge

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YouGov/Times poll finds 43% saying NHS would get worse under CON compared with 25% under LAB. Fieldwork after the Tory £8bn extra pledge — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 The latest YouGov Sun poll sees LAB move to a 3% lead CON 33 (-1) LAB 36 (+2) LD 7 (=) UKIP 13 (=) GRN 5 (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 But could it take a few days to get through? First reaction to the Tory big…

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It is looking like being 1992 all over again

It is looking like being 1992 all over again

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The battle for the White House in 2016 looks like being a repeat of 1992 Sky News say Hillary Clinton is today expected to confirm she is running for the Democratic nomination to be the president of the US, effectively firing the starting gun on the 2016 election campaign. The former Secretary of State and First Lady has long been the runaway favourite to be the party’s candidate for the election next November. It is expected she will make the…

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For the second weekend in a row UKIP are accused of burying a poll that shows them losing a seat they are expected to win

For the second weekend in a row UKIP are accused of burying a poll that shows them losing a seat they are expected to win

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Mark Reckless on course to lose his seat accordingly to a private poll. http://t.co/FjxsfMBpbj pic.twitter.com/84OU8SbPL4 — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 12, 2015 Will Reckless’ decision to defect turn out to be a reckless one? This polling doesn’t come as a surprise, prior to the by-election last year, Lord Ashcroft’s polling found Reckless winning the by-election but losing at the general election. It does fit in with the wider political narrative, such as last night’s Opinium, UKIP hitting a low that they…

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Policies not leadership will win this election

Policies not leadership will win this election

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Front page of the Mail on Sunday with the Tory policy announcement on IHT pic.twitter.com/bTbs0LobRj — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 11, 2015 Front page of the Independent on Sunday with the Lab policy announcement on tax avoidance pic.twitter.com/JYR3DKJPCt — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 11, 2015   Last night saw the the emergence of a major policy announcement by both the Tories and Labour, these can be seen as the appetising hors-d’oeuvre before the main course that is the manifesto launches in the…

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UKIP drops to 11% as the Tories re-take the lead with Opinium

UKIP drops to 11% as the Tories re-take the lead with Opinium

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CON take lead with OpiniumCon 36% (+3), Lab 34% (+1), Lib Dems 7% (n/c), UKIP 11% (-3), Greens 6% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2015 Opinium leaders approvals ratingCameron -2Miliband -18So very different from what Survation recorded 2 days ago — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2015 What's really weird is totally different leader approval ratings between Opinium & Survation. Former DC 16% ahead: latter had Ed in lead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2015 Survation approval…

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