— TSE (@TSEofPB) April 12, 2015
Will Reckless’ decision to defect turn out to be a reckless one?
This polling doesn’t come as a surprise, prior to the by-election last year, Lord Ashcroft’s polling found Reckless winning the by-election but losing at the general election.
It does fit in with the wider political narrative, such as last night’s Opinium, UKIP hitting a low that they last achieved in 2011.
Right now, if you think UKIP are going to flatter to deceive come May the 7th, you can get 7/2 on UKIP winning just one seat, as Douglas Carswell is in my opinion is going to win Clacton comfortably.
It maybe that UKIP do better in other seats, as has been noted, Â Farage is a divisive figure, whilst Mark Reckless has earned the ire of many Tories, for the timing of his defection.
The Tories are 4/5 to take Rochester and Strood itself and UKIP are 11/10.
Some PBers may wish to exercise caution until we see the data tables from this poll.