On Grand National day Marf links the big race to the general election

On Grand National day Marf links the big race to the general election

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Please join me in helping Marf buy essential equipment and materials Over the years Marf’s cartoons have enriched the site but unfortunately the only way we’ve been able to help her financially is though encouraging people to buy originals or prints of her work and allocating part of the proceeds when we’ve had a PB appeal. I know Marf incurs costs and at this time as we move towards the general election I am asking PBers to join me in…

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Con+LD=320 is the magic equation for Dave

Con+LD=320 is the magic equation for Dave

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15+ net Con losses and it’s opposition for the Tories For a country which according to Disraeli does not love coalitions, Britain seems to be doing its best to force its politicians into another one. That may well not happen, though not because anyone will gain a majority. None of the four likely largest parties post-election sounds keen on a formal pact where more than one of them has seats around the cabinet table. But whoever ends up on top…

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If this YouGov polling is correct stopping the SNP in Scotland could lead to tactical voting on a scale never seen before

If this YouGov polling is correct stopping the SNP in Scotland could lead to tactical voting on a scale never seen before

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New YouGov/C4 Scottish points to big tactical switch by CON/LAB/LD voters to stop SNP http://t.co/XCKQumcXyF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2015 YouGov/C4 Scottish polling finds 31% of LAB voters & 39% of LDs ready to switch to CON if they thought that would stop SNP in their seat — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2015 YouGov/C4 Scottish polling finds 53% of Tories & 36% of LAB voters ready to switch to LD if they thought that would stop SNP…

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The general election now the UK’s number one story

The general election now the UK’s number one story

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Top Ten Most Noticed news stories this week #TTMN | General Election, for the first time, most noticed news this week pic.twitter.com/gOjYBYoDgm — Populus (@PopulusPolls) April 10, 2015 I do like this weekly Tweet from Populus which can put a lot of things into context. Too often those deeply immersed in politics tend to overstate importance of what seem to them to be major developments to the outside world. This brings it down to earth. At the moment the reference…

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My favourite GE15 spread bet: That there’ll be a CON margin on seats of fewer than 12

My favourite GE15 spread bet: That there’ll be a CON margin on seats of fewer than 12

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Betting sentiment remains solidly with CON double digit seat margin The chart shows the trend on the Sporting Index commons seats spread market over the past few months and as can be seen the Tories have opened a double digit lead which has remained for some weeks. Even yesterday’s poor polls for the Tories did not have much impact. As well as the straight total seats betting as seen above there’s another market I like – CON supremacy over LAB….

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The final polls of the day make it rather a mixed picture for LAB

The final polls of the day make it rather a mixed picture for LAB

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After last week's 4% CON lead tonight's ComRes/Mail phone poll hasCon 34% (-2)Lab 33% (+1)Lib Dem 12% (+3)UKIP 12% (NC) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2015 ComRes chart with latest phone poll showing CON lead down by 3 pic.twitter.com/EeeoooP9cP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2015 YouGov/Sun poll has CON back in leadCON 35 (+1)LAB 34 (-1)LD 8 (=)UKIP 12 (-1)GRN 4 (-1)So only GB poll to have LAB position down. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2015

The Tories move to win the elder brothers’ vote – a wise move?

The Tories move to win the elder brothers’ vote – a wise move?

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Tim Montgomerie has got this right Embarrassing: Way too personal from Michael Fallon against Ed Miliband via @SamCoatesTimes pic.twitter.com/wU64AVMvCD — Tim Montgomerie ?? (@montie) April 8, 2015 Some good numbers from TNS for LAB Boost for LAB from TNSLAB 33% (+1) CON 30% (-3) LD 8% (0) UKIP 19% (+3) GREEN 4% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2015